Trader consensus heavily favors Kevin Warsh as President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, paired with the federal funds rate staying above 2.5%, reflecting his March formal nomination and hawkish reputation amid forecasts of steady rates around 3.6% through 2026 after the Fed's March hold and projection of just one cut. Recent Senate Banking Committee delays—pushing Warsh's confirmation hearing past mid-April due to GOP holdouts like Sen. Thom Tillis and a DOJ probe into Powell—have trimmed timely confirmation odds on rival markets, yet Polymarket traders remain confident in his approval before Powell's May 15 term end. Faded early contender Rick Rieder's low odds underscore Warsh's lead, with persistent inflation and oil pressures supporting elevated rates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트각 연준 의장에 따른 예상 연준 환율
각 연준 의장에 따른 예상 연준 환율
케빈 워시 & 금리 > 2.5% 73%
케빈 워시 & 금리 ≤ 2.5% 12%
릭 리더 & 금리 > 2.5% 6.2%
기타 2.9%
$107,941 거래량
$107,941 거래량
2026.12.31
케빈 워시 & 금리 > 2.5%
73%
케빈 워시 & 금리 ≤ 2.5%
12%
릭 리더 & 금리 > 2.5%
6%
기타
3%
릭 리더 & 금리 ≤ 2.5%
2%
케빈 해셋 & 금리 ≤ 2.5%
1%
크리스토퍼 월러 & 금리 ≤ 2.5%
1%
케빈 해싯 & 금리 > 2.5%
<1%
크리스토퍼 월러 & 금리 > 2.5%
<1%
케빈 워시 & 금리 > 2.5% 73%
케빈 워시 & 금리 ≤ 2.5% 12%
릭 리더 & 금리 > 2.5% 6.2%
기타 2.9%
$107,941 거래량
$107,941 거래량
2026.12.31
케빈 워시 & 금리 > 2.5%
$6,664 거래량
73%
케빈 워시 & 금리 ≤ 2.5%
$5,517 거래량
12%
릭 리더 & 금리 > 2.5%
$22,894 거래량
6%
기타
$15,254 거래량
3%
릭 리더 & 금리 ≤ 2.5%
$24,771 거래량
2%
케빈 해셋 & 금리 ≤ 2.5%
$11,767 거래량
1%
크리스토퍼 월러 & 금리 ≤ 2.5%
$6,159 거래량
1%
케빈 해싯 & 금리 > 2.5%
$7,261 거래량
<1%
크리스토퍼 월러 & 금리 > 2.5%
$7,652 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors Kevin Warsh as President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, paired with the federal funds rate staying above 2.5%, reflecting his March formal nomination and hawkish reputation amid forecasts of steady rates around 3.6% through 2026 after the Fed's March hold and projection of just one cut. Recent Senate Banking Committee delays—pushing Warsh's confirmation hearing past mid-April due to GOP holdouts like Sen. Thom Tillis and a DOJ probe into Powell—have trimmed timely confirmation odds on rival markets, yet Polymarket traders remain confident in his approval before Powell's May 15 term end. Faded early contender Rick Rieder's low odds underscore Warsh's lead, with persistent inflation and oil pressures supporting elevated rates.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
마켓 개설일: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
거래량
$107,941종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors Kevin Warsh as President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, paired with the federal funds rate staying above 2.5%, reflecting his March formal nomination and hawkish reputation amid forecasts of steady rates around 3.6% through 2026 after the Fed's March hold and projection of just one cut. Recent Senate Banking Committee delays—pushing Warsh's confirmation hearing past mid-April due to GOP holdouts like Sen. Thom Tillis and a DOJ probe into Powell—have trimmed timely confirmation odds on rival markets, yet Polymarket traders remain confident in his approval before Powell's May 15 term end. Faded early contender Rick Rieder's low odds underscore Warsh's lead, with persistent inflation and oil pressures supporting elevated rates.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
거래량
$107,941종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Kevin Warsh as President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, paired with the federal funds rate staying above 2.5%, reflecting his March formal nomination and hawkish reputation amid forecasts of steady rates around 3.6% through 2026 after the Fed's March hold and projection of just one cut. Recent Senate Banking Committee delays—pushing Warsh's confirmation hearing past mid-April due to GOP holdouts like Sen. Thom Tillis and a DOJ probe into Powell—have trimmed timely confirmation odds on rival markets, yet Polymarket traders remain confident in his approval before Powell's May 15 term end. Faded early contender Rick Rieder's low odds underscore Warsh's lead, with persistent inflation and oil pressures supporting elevated rates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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