Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to serve as DHS Secretary under President Trump opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, with Gov. Kevin Stitt appointing interim Sen. Alan Armstrong—who is ineligible to run—prompting a crowded Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern as the frontrunner, backed by Trump, multiple senators, and Club for Growth, and leading early polls like Pulse Decision Science (52%). Democrats' primary field, including low-fundraising candidates like N'Kiyla Thomas and Ervin Yen, lacks competitive edge. Oklahoma's R+20 partisan lean, GOP historical margins exceeding 30 points (e.g., Mullin's 2022 win), and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin the 93% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the June 16 primary. Upsets could arise from GOP primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee, scandals, or national wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,717 거래량
$11,717 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
93%
민주당
5%
$11,717 거래량
$11,717 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$6,877 거래량
93%
민주당
$4,840 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to serve as DHS Secretary under President Trump opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, with Gov. Kevin Stitt appointing interim Sen. Alan Armstrong—who is ineligible to run—prompting a crowded Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern as the frontrunner, backed by Trump, multiple senators, and Club for Growth, and leading early polls like Pulse Decision Science (52%). Democrats' primary field, including low-fundraising candidates like N'Kiyla Thomas and Ervin Yen, lacks competitive edge. Oklahoma's R+20 partisan lean, GOP historical margins exceeding 30 points (e.g., Mullin's 2022 win), and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin the 93% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the June 16 primary. Upsets could arise from GOP primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee, scandals, or national wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
거래량
$11,717종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to serve as DHS Secretary under President Trump opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, with Gov. Kevin Stitt appointing interim Sen. Alan Armstrong—who is ineligible to run—prompting a crowded Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern as the frontrunner, backed by Trump, multiple senators, and Club for Growth, and leading early polls like Pulse Decision Science (52%). Democrats' primary field, including low-fundraising candidates like N'Kiyla Thomas and Ervin Yen, lacks competitive edge. Oklahoma's R+20 partisan lean, GOP historical margins exceeding 30 points (e.g., Mullin's 2022 win), and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin the 93% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the June 16 primary. Upsets could arise from GOP primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee, scandals, or national wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$11,717종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to serve as DHS Secretary under President Trump opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, with Gov. Kevin Stitt appointing interim Sen. Alan Armstrong—who is ineligible to run—prompting a crowded Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern as the frontrunner, backed by Trump, multiple senators, and Club for Growth, and leading early polls like Pulse Decision Science (52%). Democrats' primary field, including low-fundraising candidates like N'Kiyla Thomas and Ervin Yen, lacks competitive edge. Oklahoma's R+20 partisan lean, GOP historical margins exceeding 30 points (e.g., Mullin's 2022 win), and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin the 93% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the June 16 primary. Upsets could arise from GOP primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee, scandals, or national wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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