New Jersey’s 8th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 50 percent. Incumbent Rob Menendez secured renomination in the June 2 primary by a roughly 70-30 margin and faces no Republican nominee on the November 3 general-election ballot. These structural factors, combined with the district’s consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpin the 93.5 percent implied probability assigned by traders. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong independent campaign could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of organized opposition make such shifts improbable before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,768 거래량
$12,768 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$12,768 거래량
$12,768 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$7,713 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$5,055 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 8th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 50 percent. Incumbent Rob Menendez secured renomination in the June 2 primary by a roughly 70-30 margin and faces no Republican nominee on the November 3 general-election ballot. These structural factors, combined with the district’s consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpin the 93.5 percent implied probability assigned by traders. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong independent campaign could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of organized opposition make such shifts improbable before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$12,768종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 8th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 50 percent. Incumbent Rob Menendez secured renomination in the June 2 primary by a roughly 70-30 margin and faces no Republican nominee on the November 3 general-election ballot. These structural factors, combined with the district’s consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpin the 93.5 percent implied probability assigned by traders. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong independent campaign could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of organized opposition make such shifts improbable before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$12,768종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey’s 8th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 50 percent. Incumbent Rob Menendez secured renomination in the June 2 primary by a roughly 70-30 margin and faces no Republican nominee on the November 3 general-election ballot. These structural factors, combined with the district’s consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpin the 93.5 percent implied probability assigned by traders. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong independent campaign could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of organized opposition make such shifts improbable before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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