Republican Michael Baumgartner, the incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a clear edge in Washington's 5th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+5 that covers much of eastern Washington including Spokane. Recent Tavern Research polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner ahead of leading Democratic challengers by 6 points in head-to-head matchups, consistent with his prior general-election margin and the district's historical Republican tilt. Multiple Democratic and independent candidates have filed for the August 4 top-two primary, but none has emerged with comparable name recognition or resources. Cook Political Report and other analysts rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting the partisan baseline and limited signs of a national environment shift that could alter the outlook before the November 2026 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,249 거래량
$15,249 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
69%
민주당
27%
$15,249 거래량
$15,249 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$7,385 거래량
69%
민주당
$7,864 거래량
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Michael Baumgartner, the incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a clear edge in Washington's 5th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+5 that covers much of eastern Washington including Spokane. Recent Tavern Research polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner ahead of leading Democratic challengers by 6 points in head-to-head matchups, consistent with his prior general-election margin and the district's historical Republican tilt. Multiple Democratic and independent candidates have filed for the August 4 top-two primary, but none has emerged with comparable name recognition or resources. Cook Political Report and other analysts rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting the partisan baseline and limited signs of a national environment shift that could alter the outlook before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$15,249종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Michael Baumgartner, the incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a clear edge in Washington's 5th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+5 that covers much of eastern Washington including Spokane. Recent Tavern Research polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner ahead of leading Democratic challengers by 6 points in head-to-head matchups, consistent with his prior general-election margin and the district's historical Republican tilt. Multiple Democratic and independent candidates have filed for the August 4 top-two primary, but none has emerged with comparable name recognition or resources. Cook Political Report and other analysts rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting the partisan baseline and limited signs of a national environment shift that could alter the outlook before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,249종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Michael Baumgartner, the incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a clear edge in Washington's 5th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+5 that covers much of eastern Washington including Spokane. Recent Tavern Research polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner ahead of leading Democratic challengers by 6 points in head-to-head matchups, consistent with his prior general-election margin and the district's historical Republican tilt. Multiple Democratic and independent candidates have filed for the August 4 top-two primary, but none has emerged with comparable name recognition or resources. Cook Political Report and other analysts rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting the partisan baseline and limited signs of a national environment shift that could alter the outlook before the November 2026 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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