Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 73% in Washington's 5th Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Michael Baumgartner's dominant position in the R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index district rated Solid Republican by forecasters. Baumgartner, who won 61% in 2024, kicked off his reelection campaign on March 30 with a major fundraiser exceeding $1 million raised and $725,000 cash on hand, far outpacing challengers. A crowded Democratic primary field—including 2024 nominee Carmela Conroy and others like Kevin Fagan—risks vote-splitting under Washington's top-two system ahead of the May 8 filing deadline and August 4 primary, bolstering GOP hold expectations despite early challenger announcements.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,624 거래량
$10,624 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
73%
Democratic Party
25%
$10,624 거래량
$10,624 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$4,114 거래량
73%
Democratic Party
$6,510 거래량
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 73% in Washington's 5th Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Michael Baumgartner's dominant position in the R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index district rated Solid Republican by forecasters. Baumgartner, who won 61% in 2024, kicked off his reelection campaign on March 30 with a major fundraiser exceeding $1 million raised and $725,000 cash on hand, far outpacing challengers. A crowded Democratic primary field—including 2024 nominee Carmela Conroy and others like Kevin Fagan—risks vote-splitting under Washington's top-two system ahead of the May 8 filing deadline and August 4 primary, bolstering GOP hold expectations despite early challenger announcements.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$10,624종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 73% in Washington's 5th Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Michael Baumgartner's dominant position in the R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index district rated Solid Republican by forecasters. Baumgartner, who won 61% in 2024, kicked off his reelection campaign on March 30 with a major fundraiser exceeding $1 million raised and $725,000 cash on hand, far outpacing challengers. A crowded Democratic primary field—including 2024 nominee Carmela Conroy and others like Kevin Fagan—risks vote-splitting under Washington's top-two system ahead of the May 8 filing deadline and August 4 primary, bolstering GOP hold expectations despite early challenger announcements.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$10,624종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 73% in Washington's 5th Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Michael Baumgartner's dominant position in the R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index district rated Solid Republican by forecasters. Baumgartner, who won 61% in 2024, kicked off his reelection campaign on March 30 with a major fundraiser exceeding $1 million raised and $725,000 cash on hand, far outpacing challengers. A crowded Democratic primary field—including 2024 nominee Carmela Conroy and others like Kevin Fagan—risks vote-splitting under Washington's top-two system ahead of the May 8 filing deadline and August 4 primary, bolstering GOP hold expectations despite early challenger announcements.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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