The open NY-21 House seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik, drives trader consensus toward the Republican Party at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's R+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index and historical GOP margins exceeding 20 points, including Stefanik's 62%-38% win in 2024. Competitive June 23 Republican primary pits well-funded Anthony Constantino, leading in cash-on-hand at over $5 million, against state GOP-endorsed Robert Smullen on the Conservative line. Democrats face a crowded primary with Blake Gendebien holding a fundraising edge but facing fragmented support amid weak past performances. With no general election polling available and ratings like Cook's Solid Republican, traders price in GOP structural advantages ahead of primaries, though nominee strength could influence dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,709 거래량
$12,709 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
72%
Democratic Party
25%
$12,709 거래량
$12,709 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$8,237 거래량
72%
Democratic Party
$4,472 거래량
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open NY-21 House seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik, drives trader consensus toward the Republican Party at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's R+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index and historical GOP margins exceeding 20 points, including Stefanik's 62%-38% win in 2024. Competitive June 23 Republican primary pits well-funded Anthony Constantino, leading in cash-on-hand at over $5 million, against state GOP-endorsed Robert Smullen on the Conservative line. Democrats face a crowded primary with Blake Gendebien holding a fundraising edge but facing fragmented support amid weak past performances. With no general election polling available and ratings like Cook's Solid Republican, traders price in GOP structural advantages ahead of primaries, though nominee strength could influence dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$12,709종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open NY-21 House seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik, drives trader consensus toward the Republican Party at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's R+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index and historical GOP margins exceeding 20 points, including Stefanik's 62%-38% win in 2024. Competitive June 23 Republican primary pits well-funded Anthony Constantino, leading in cash-on-hand at over $5 million, against state GOP-endorsed Robert Smullen on the Conservative line. Democrats face a crowded primary with Blake Gendebien holding a fundraising edge but facing fragmented support amid weak past performances. With no general election polling available and ratings like Cook's Solid Republican, traders price in GOP structural advantages ahead of primaries, though nominee strength could influence dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$12,709종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open NY-21 House seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik, drives trader consensus toward the Republican Party at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's R+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index and historical GOP margins exceeding 20 points, including Stefanik's 62%-38% win in 2024. Competitive June 23 Republican primary pits well-funded Anthony Constantino, leading in cash-on-hand at over $5 million, against state GOP-endorsed Robert Smullen on the Conservative line. Democrats face a crowded primary with Blake Gendebien holding a fundraising edge but facing fragmented support amid weak past performances. With no general election polling available and ratings like Cook's Solid Republican, traders price in GOP structural advantages ahead of primaries, though nominee strength could influence dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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