California's 1st congressional district, redrawn under Proposition 50, now carries a strong Democratic partisan lean that shapes trader pricing ahead of the November 2026 general election. Republican James Gallagher, who won a June 2026 special election under prior boundaries following the death of longtime incumbent Doug LaMalfa, advanced from the June 2 primary alongside Democrat Mike McGuire. The new district lines have produced ratings such as Solid D from major forecasters, driving the wide gap in implied probabilities. Limited crossover appeal or turnout surprises among key voting blocs in the redrawn territory represent the main variables that could narrow the outcome before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$26,835 거래량
$26,835 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
4%
$26,835 거래량
$26,835 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$18,569 거래량
94%
공화당
$8,266 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district, redrawn under Proposition 50, now carries a strong Democratic partisan lean that shapes trader pricing ahead of the November 2026 general election. Republican James Gallagher, who won a June 2026 special election under prior boundaries following the death of longtime incumbent Doug LaMalfa, advanced from the June 2 primary alongside Democrat Mike McGuire. The new district lines have produced ratings such as Solid D from major forecasters, driving the wide gap in implied probabilities. Limited crossover appeal or turnout surprises among key voting blocs in the redrawn territory represent the main variables that could narrow the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$26,835종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district, redrawn under Proposition 50, now carries a strong Democratic partisan lean that shapes trader pricing ahead of the November 2026 general election. Republican James Gallagher, who won a June 2026 special election under prior boundaries following the death of longtime incumbent Doug LaMalfa, advanced from the June 2 primary alongside Democrat Mike McGuire. The new district lines have produced ratings such as Solid D from major forecasters, driving the wide gap in implied probabilities. Limited crossover appeal or turnout surprises among key voting blocs in the redrawn territory represent the main variables that could narrow the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$26,835종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 1st congressional district, redrawn under Proposition 50, now carries a strong Democratic partisan lean that shapes trader pricing ahead of the November 2026 general election. Republican James Gallagher, who won a June 2026 special election under prior boundaries following the death of longtime incumbent Doug LaMalfa, advanced from the June 2 primary alongside Democrat Mike McGuire. The new district lines have produced ratings such as Solid D from major forecasters, driving the wide gap in implied probabilities. Limited crossover appeal or turnout surprises among key voting blocs in the redrawn territory represent the main variables that could narrow the outcome before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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