Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy's strong reelection in 2024 drives trader consensus favoring a Republican hold in NY-23 at 81.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's Republican partisan lean, bolstered by rural Southern Tier voters and Langworthy's incumbency advantage, underpins the pricing, consistent with Solid R ratings from forecasters. Recent Democratic challengers, including Aaron Gies, began petitioning in late February 2026 to contest the seat, while a Republican primary foe announced a bid earlier that month; however, no polls indicate a competitive race, and Langworthy leads in fundraising. Primaries, potentially in June, loom as the next catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
17%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$3,200 거래량
83%
Democratic Party
$1,784 거래량
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy's strong reelection in 2024 drives trader consensus favoring a Republican hold in NY-23 at 81.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's Republican partisan lean, bolstered by rural Southern Tier voters and Langworthy's incumbency advantage, underpins the pricing, consistent with Solid R ratings from forecasters. Recent Democratic challengers, including Aaron Gies, began petitioning in late February 2026 to contest the seat, while a Republican primary foe announced a bid earlier that month; however, no polls indicate a competitive race, and Langworthy leads in fundraising. Primaries, potentially in June, loom as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$4,984종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy's strong reelection in 2024 drives trader consensus favoring a Republican hold in NY-23 at 81.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's Republican partisan lean, bolstered by rural Southern Tier voters and Langworthy's incumbency advantage, underpins the pricing, consistent with Solid R ratings from forecasters. Recent Democratic challengers, including Aaron Gies, began petitioning in late February 2026 to contest the seat, while a Republican primary foe announced a bid earlier that month; however, no polls indicate a competitive race, and Langworthy leads in fundraising. Primaries, potentially in June, loom as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$4,984종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy's strong reelection in 2024 drives trader consensus favoring a Republican hold in NY-23 at 81.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's Republican partisan lean, bolstered by rural Southern Tier voters and Langworthy's incumbency advantage, underpins the pricing, consistent with Solid R ratings from forecasters. Recent Democratic challengers, including Aaron Gies, began petitioning in late February 2026 to contest the seat, while a Republican primary foe announced a bid earlier that month; however, no polls indicate a competitive race, and Langworthy leads in fundraising. Primaries, potentially in June, loom as the next catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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