Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection track record, including a 62.7% victory in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic win in California's 24th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's D+13 partisan lean, reflected in 60.9% Democratic presidential support in 2024, combined with Carbajal's fundraising dominance—$3.25 million cash on hand versus Republican Bob Smith's $36,000—solidifies this positioning amid a weak GOP field. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but forecasters see little risk of a Republican advance. Late scandals, health issues, or a massive national Republican wave could challenge this, though structural advantages make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$3,462 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$4,135 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection track record, including a 62.7% victory in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic win in California's 24th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's D+13 partisan lean, reflected in 60.9% Democratic presidential support in 2024, combined with Carbajal's fundraising dominance—$3.25 million cash on hand versus Republican Bob Smith's $36,000—solidifies this positioning amid a weak GOP field. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but forecasters see little risk of a Republican advance. Late scandals, health issues, or a massive national Republican wave could challenge this, though structural advantages make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$7,597종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection track record, including a 62.7% victory in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic win in California's 24th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's D+13 partisan lean, reflected in 60.9% Democratic presidential support in 2024, combined with Carbajal's fundraising dominance—$3.25 million cash on hand versus Republican Bob Smith's $36,000—solidifies this positioning amid a weak GOP field. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but forecasters see little risk of a Republican advance. Late scandals, health issues, or a massive national Republican wave could challenge this, though structural advantages make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$7,597종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection track record, including a 62.7% victory in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic win in California's 24th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's D+13 partisan lean, reflected in 60.9% Democratic presidential support in 2024, combined with Carbajal's fundraising dominance—$3.25 million cash on hand versus Republican Bob Smith's $36,000—solidifies this positioning amid a weak GOP field. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but forecasters see little risk of a Republican advance. Late scandals, health issues, or a massive national Republican wave could challenge this, though structural advantages make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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