Incumbent Democratic Representative Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district alongside Republican challenger Bob Smith, securing roughly 54 percent of the vote in a contest that confirmed the general election matchup for November 3. The district, encompassing Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, aligning with Carbajal's multiple re-elections since 2016. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic hold, consistent with the district's partisan composition and the incumbent's established position. Late developments such as major shifts in national political conditions, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though structural factors favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,918 거래량
$17,918 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,918 거래량
$17,918 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$10,034 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$7,883 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district alongside Republican challenger Bob Smith, securing roughly 54 percent of the vote in a contest that confirmed the general election matchup for November 3. The district, encompassing Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, aligning with Carbajal's multiple re-elections since 2016. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic hold, consistent with the district's partisan composition and the incumbent's established position. Late developments such as major shifts in national political conditions, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though structural factors favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$17,918종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district alongside Republican challenger Bob Smith, securing roughly 54 percent of the vote in a contest that confirmed the general election matchup for November 3. The district, encompassing Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, aligning with Carbajal's multiple re-elections since 2016. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic hold, consistent with the district's partisan composition and the incumbent's established position. Late developments such as major shifts in national political conditions, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though structural factors favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,918종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district alongside Republican challenger Bob Smith, securing roughly 54 percent of the vote in a contest that confirmed the general election matchup for November 3. The district, encompassing Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, aligning with Carbajal's multiple re-elections since 2016. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic hold, consistent with the district's partisan composition and the incumbent's established position. Late developments such as major shifts in national political conditions, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though structural factors favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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