New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement has triggered a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, with recent polling showing a tight contest among candidates including Micah Lasher and Alex Bores. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district that delivered over 80 percent support for the Democratic candidate in 2024. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party aligns with this established electoral math, though an unforeseen primary upset producing a highly controversial nominee or a major late-cycle scandal could theoretically narrow the general-election margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,211 거래량
$20,211 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
5%
$20,211 거래량
$20,211 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$16,248 거래량
95%
공화당
$3,963 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement has triggered a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, with recent polling showing a tight contest among candidates including Micah Lasher and Alex Bores. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district that delivered over 80 percent support for the Democratic candidate in 2024. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party aligns with this established electoral math, though an unforeseen primary upset producing a highly controversial nominee or a major late-cycle scandal could theoretically narrow the general-election margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$20,211종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement has triggered a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, with recent polling showing a tight contest among candidates including Micah Lasher and Alex Bores. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district that delivered over 80 percent support for the Democratic candidate in 2024. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party aligns with this established electoral math, though an unforeseen primary upset producing a highly controversial nominee or a major late-cycle scandal could theoretically narrow the general-election margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$20,211종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement has triggered a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, with recent polling showing a tight contest among candidates including Micah Lasher and Alex Bores. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district that delivered over 80 percent support for the Democratic candidate in 2024. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party aligns with this established electoral math, though an unforeseen primary upset producing a highly controversial nominee or a major late-cycle scandal could theoretically narrow the general-election margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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