Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win New York's 12th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean (Cook PVI D+34) and history of lopsided Democratic margins, such as Rep. Jerry Nadler's 2024 victory. Nadler's September 2025 retirement opened the race, spurring a crowded Democratic primary featuring high-profile contenders like Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and Micah Lasher—who lead early March polls—while Republicans endorsed attorney Caroline Shinkle amid limited visibility. With the June 23 primary approaching, odds hold firm absent a weak Democratic nominee emerging from a bruising contest, a major GOP fundraising surge, national midterm Republican wave, or post-primary scandal.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
민주당
$7,606 거래량
94%
공화당
$2,269 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win New York's 12th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean (Cook PVI D+34) and history of lopsided Democratic margins, such as Rep. Jerry Nadler's 2024 victory. Nadler's September 2025 retirement opened the race, spurring a crowded Democratic primary featuring high-profile contenders like Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and Micah Lasher—who lead early March polls—while Republicans endorsed attorney Caroline Shinkle amid limited visibility. With the June 23 primary approaching, odds hold firm absent a weak Democratic nominee emerging from a bruising contest, a major GOP fundraising surge, national midterm Republican wave, or post-primary scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$9,875종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win New York's 12th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean (Cook PVI D+34) and history of lopsided Democratic margins, such as Rep. Jerry Nadler's 2024 victory. Nadler's September 2025 retirement opened the race, spurring a crowded Democratic primary featuring high-profile contenders like Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and Micah Lasher—who lead early March polls—while Republicans endorsed attorney Caroline Shinkle amid limited visibility. With the June 23 primary approaching, odds hold firm absent a weak Democratic nominee emerging from a bruising contest, a major GOP fundraising surge, national midterm Republican wave, or post-primary scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$9,875종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win New York's 12th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean (Cook PVI D+34) and history of lopsided Democratic margins, such as Rep. Jerry Nadler's 2024 victory. Nadler's September 2025 retirement opened the race, spurring a crowded Democratic primary featuring high-profile contenders like Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and Micah Lasher—who lead early March polls—while Republicans endorsed attorney Caroline Shinkle amid limited visibility. With the June 23 primary approaching, odds hold firm absent a weak Democratic nominee emerging from a bruising contest, a major GOP fundraising surge, national midterm Republican wave, or post-primary scandal.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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