New York’s 12th congressional district, anchored in Manhattan, carries a D+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most Democratic seats nationally. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opened the race, but the June 23 Democratic primary—featuring frontrunners Micah Lasher and Alex Bores alongside Jack Schlossberg and George Conway—will effectively decide the general election outcome. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle faces structural headwinds in a district that delivered over 80 percent for Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched partisan tilt, with limited polling movement or national conditions capable of narrowing the gap absent an unforeseen primary disruption or late-breaking development before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,211 거래량
$20,211 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
5%
$20,211 거래량
$20,211 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$16,248 거래량
95%
공화당
$3,963 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, anchored in Manhattan, carries a D+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most Democratic seats nationally. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opened the race, but the June 23 Democratic primary—featuring frontrunners Micah Lasher and Alex Bores alongside Jack Schlossberg and George Conway—will effectively decide the general election outcome. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle faces structural headwinds in a district that delivered over 80 percent for Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched partisan tilt, with limited polling movement or national conditions capable of narrowing the gap absent an unforeseen primary disruption or late-breaking development before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$20,211종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, anchored in Manhattan, carries a D+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most Democratic seats nationally. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opened the race, but the June 23 Democratic primary—featuring frontrunners Micah Lasher and Alex Bores alongside Jack Schlossberg and George Conway—will effectively decide the general election outcome. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle faces structural headwinds in a district that delivered over 80 percent for Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched partisan tilt, with limited polling movement or national conditions capable of narrowing the gap absent an unforeseen primary disruption or late-breaking development before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$20,211종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, anchored in Manhattan, carries a D+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most Democratic seats nationally. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opened the race, but the June 23 Democratic primary—featuring frontrunners Micah Lasher and Alex Bores alongside Jack Schlossberg and George Conway—will effectively decide the general election outcome. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle faces structural headwinds in a district that delivered over 80 percent for Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched partisan tilt, with limited polling movement or national conditions capable of narrowing the gap absent an unforeseen primary disruption or late-breaking development before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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