Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan secured his party's nomination unopposed in the May 5 primary for Ohio's 4th congressional district, a seat he has held since 2007 in a district rated solidly Republican by major forecasters. The area's partisan composition, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the 93.5% Republican implied probability, as Democratic nominee Joshua Kolasinski faces structural barriers in a district that voted strongly for Republican candidates in recent cycles. Traders' consensus aligns with historical base rates for safe seats, where incumbency and fundraising advantages typically deter effective challenges. A national political shift, unexpected scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though no such developments have emerged in the weeks since the primaries.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$3,560 거래량
94%
Democratic Party
$5,603 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan secured his party's nomination unopposed in the May 5 primary for Ohio's 4th congressional district, a seat he has held since 2007 in a district rated solidly Republican by major forecasters. The area's partisan composition, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the 93.5% Republican implied probability, as Democratic nominee Joshua Kolasinski faces structural barriers in a district that voted strongly for Republican candidates in recent cycles. Traders' consensus aligns with historical base rates for safe seats, where incumbency and fundraising advantages typically deter effective challenges. A national political shift, unexpected scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though no such developments have emerged in the weeks since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$9,163종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan secured his party's nomination unopposed in the May 5 primary for Ohio's 4th congressional district, a seat he has held since 2007 in a district rated solidly Republican by major forecasters. The area's partisan composition, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the 93.5% Republican implied probability, as Democratic nominee Joshua Kolasinski faces structural barriers in a district that voted strongly for Republican candidates in recent cycles. Traders' consensus aligns with historical base rates for safe seats, where incumbency and fundraising advantages typically deter effective challenges. A national political shift, unexpected scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though no such developments have emerged in the weeks since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$9,163종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan secured his party's nomination unopposed in the May 5 primary for Ohio's 4th congressional district, a seat he has held since 2007 in a district rated solidly Republican by major forecasters. The area's partisan composition, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the 93.5% Republican implied probability, as Democratic nominee Joshua Kolasinski faces structural barriers in a district that voted strongly for Republican candidates in recent cycles. Traders' consensus aligns with historical base rates for safe seats, where incumbency and fundraising advantages typically deter effective challenges. A national political shift, unexpected scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though no such developments have emerged in the weeks since the primaries.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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