Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 11th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. She won the April 2026 special election to succeed former Representative Mikie Sherrill by a 60-39 margin and secured her party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote. The district's partisan lean, reflected in its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, combined with consistent "Solid Democratic" ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around a 91.5 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require a substantial national partisan shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,777 거래량
$17,777 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$17,777 거래량
$17,777 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$13,408 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$4,370 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 11th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. She won the April 2026 special election to succeed former Representative Mikie Sherrill by a 60-39 margin and secured her party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote. The district's partisan lean, reflected in its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, combined with consistent "Solid Democratic" ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around a 91.5 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require a substantial national partisan shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$17,777종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 11th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. She won the April 2026 special election to succeed former Representative Mikie Sherrill by a 60-39 margin and secured her party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote. The district's partisan lean, reflected in its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, combined with consistent "Solid Democratic" ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around a 91.5 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require a substantial national partisan shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,777종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 11th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. She won the April 2026 special election to succeed former Representative Mikie Sherrill by a 60-39 margin and secured her party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote. The district's partisan lean, reflected in its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, combined with consistent "Solid Democratic" ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around a 91.5 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require a substantial national partisan shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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