Analilia Mejia's decisive victory in the April 2026 special election to succeed Mikie Sherrill has solidified Democratic control of New Jersey's 11th congressional district ahead of the November general election. The seat's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in prior cycles and forecaster ratings labeling it solid or safe for the party, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for Democrats versus 6.5% for Republicans. Mejia's primary win over a crowded field and subsequent 20-point general-election margin against Joe Hathaway further reinforced trader assessments of low competitiveness. While the outcome appears stable, events such as major scandals, significant national political shifts, or unforeseen candidate withdrawals could still alter dynamics before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,777 거래량
$17,777 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$17,777 거래량
$17,777 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$13,408 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$4,370 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia's decisive victory in the April 2026 special election to succeed Mikie Sherrill has solidified Democratic control of New Jersey's 11th congressional district ahead of the November general election. The seat's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in prior cycles and forecaster ratings labeling it solid or safe for the party, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for Democrats versus 6.5% for Republicans. Mejia's primary win over a crowded field and subsequent 20-point general-election margin against Joe Hathaway further reinforced trader assessments of low competitiveness. While the outcome appears stable, events such as major scandals, significant national political shifts, or unforeseen candidate withdrawals could still alter dynamics before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$17,777종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia's decisive victory in the April 2026 special election to succeed Mikie Sherrill has solidified Democratic control of New Jersey's 11th congressional district ahead of the November general election. The seat's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in prior cycles and forecaster ratings labeling it solid or safe for the party, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for Democrats versus 6.5% for Republicans. Mejia's primary win over a crowded field and subsequent 20-point general-election margin against Joe Hathaway further reinforced trader assessments of low competitiveness. While the outcome appears stable, events such as major scandals, significant national political shifts, or unforeseen candidate withdrawals could still alter dynamics before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,777종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Analilia Mejia's decisive victory in the April 2026 special election to succeed Mikie Sherrill has solidified Democratic control of New Jersey's 11th congressional district ahead of the November general election. The seat's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in prior cycles and forecaster ratings labeling it solid or safe for the party, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for Democrats versus 6.5% for Republicans. Mejia's primary win over a crowded field and subsequent 20-point general-election margin against Joe Hathaway further reinforced trader assessments of low competitiveness. While the outcome appears stable, events such as major scandals, significant national political shifts, or unforeseen candidate withdrawals could still alter dynamics before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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