The Democratic Party's commanding 94.5% implied probability in the CA-11 House race stems from the district's strong partisan lean—Cook PVI D+36 encompassing most of San Francisco—coupled with Nancy Pelosi's retirement leaving an open seat dominated by eight Democratic candidates in the June 2 top-two primary. A May 9 Sextant Strategies poll of 819 likely voters shows Scott Wiener at 40%, Saikat Chakrabarti at 18%, and Connie Chan at 17%, with Republicans uncompetitive amid lopsided Democratic fundraising ($15.6M total spending, nearly all by Democrats). Traders price in two Democrats advancing to the November 3 general, ensuring a party hold per historical precedents like Pelosi's 81% 2024 win. Upsets would require a Republican primary breakthrough, late scandals, or legal challenges derailing frontrunners.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$2,297 거래량
95%
Republican Party
$701 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding 94.5% implied probability in the CA-11 House race stems from the district's strong partisan lean—Cook PVI D+36 encompassing most of San Francisco—coupled with Nancy Pelosi's retirement leaving an open seat dominated by eight Democratic candidates in the June 2 top-two primary. A May 9 Sextant Strategies poll of 819 likely voters shows Scott Wiener at 40%, Saikat Chakrabarti at 18%, and Connie Chan at 17%, with Republicans uncompetitive amid lopsided Democratic fundraising ($15.6M total spending, nearly all by Democrats). Traders price in two Democrats advancing to the November 3 general, ensuring a party hold per historical precedents like Pelosi's 81% 2024 win. Upsets would require a Republican primary breakthrough, late scandals, or legal challenges derailing frontrunners.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$2,998종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding 94.5% implied probability in the CA-11 House race stems from the district's strong partisan lean—Cook PVI D+36 encompassing most of San Francisco—coupled with Nancy Pelosi's retirement leaving an open seat dominated by eight Democratic candidates in the June 2 top-two primary. A May 9 Sextant Strategies poll of 819 likely voters shows Scott Wiener at 40%, Saikat Chakrabarti at 18%, and Connie Chan at 17%, with Republicans uncompetitive amid lopsided Democratic fundraising ($15.6M total spending, nearly all by Democrats). Traders price in two Democrats advancing to the November 3 general, ensuring a party hold per historical precedents like Pelosi's 81% 2024 win. Upsets would require a Republican primary breakthrough, late scandals, or legal challenges derailing frontrunners.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,998종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party's commanding 94.5% implied probability in the CA-11 House race stems from the district's strong partisan lean—Cook PVI D+36 encompassing most of San Francisco—coupled with Nancy Pelosi's retirement leaving an open seat dominated by eight Democratic candidates in the June 2 top-two primary. A May 9 Sextant Strategies poll of 819 likely voters shows Scott Wiener at 40%, Saikat Chakrabarti at 18%, and Connie Chan at 17%, with Republicans uncompetitive amid lopsided Democratic fundraising ($15.6M total spending, nearly all by Democrats). Traders price in two Democrats advancing to the November 3 general, ensuring a party hold per historical precedents like Pelosi's 81% 2024 win. Upsets would require a Republican primary breakthrough, late scandals, or legal challenges derailing frontrunners.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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