Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% to win California's 14th Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by the Bay Area district's deep blue partisan lean—historically reflected in large Democratic margins and a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+27 from prior cycles. Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation earlier this week amid sexual misconduct allegations opened the seat, prompting Gov. Gavin Newsom to call a special primary for June 16 and general on August 18, but this underscores an all-Democratic top-two primary dynamic likely for the full-term race on June 2 primary. With no major Republican challengers filed yet and California's Democratic House dominance, odds remain commanding; shifts could arise from a surprise GOP primary advancer, a fractured Democratic field yielding a weak nominee, or national midterm wave effects.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$24,894 거래량
$24,894 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
92%
공화당
7%
$24,894 거래량
$24,894 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$7,851 거래량
92%
공화당
$17,044 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% to win California's 14th Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by the Bay Area district's deep blue partisan lean—historically reflected in large Democratic margins and a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+27 from prior cycles. Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation earlier this week amid sexual misconduct allegations opened the seat, prompting Gov. Gavin Newsom to call a special primary for June 16 and general on August 18, but this underscores an all-Democratic top-two primary dynamic likely for the full-term race on June 2 primary. With no major Republican challengers filed yet and California's Democratic House dominance, odds remain commanding; shifts could arise from a surprise GOP primary advancer, a fractured Democratic field yielding a weak nominee, or national midterm wave effects.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$24,894종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% to win California's 14th Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by the Bay Area district's deep blue partisan lean—historically reflected in large Democratic margins and a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+27 from prior cycles. Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation earlier this week amid sexual misconduct allegations opened the seat, prompting Gov. Gavin Newsom to call a special primary for June 16 and general on August 18, but this underscores an all-Democratic top-two primary dynamic likely for the full-term race on June 2 primary. With no major Republican challengers filed yet and California's Democratic House dominance, odds remain commanding; shifts could arise from a surprise GOP primary advancer, a fractured Democratic field yielding a weak nominee, or national midterm wave effects.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$24,894종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% to win California's 14th Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by the Bay Area district's deep blue partisan lean—historically reflected in large Democratic margins and a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+27 from prior cycles. Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation earlier this week amid sexual misconduct allegations opened the seat, prompting Gov. Gavin Newsom to call a special primary for June 16 and general on August 18, but this underscores an all-Democratic top-two primary dynamic likely for the full-term race on June 2 primary. With no major Republican challengers filed yet and California's Democratic House dominance, odds remain commanding; shifts could arise from a surprise GOP primary advancer, a fractured Democratic field yielding a weak nominee, or national midterm wave effects.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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