Iowa's 4th Congressional District carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most reliably Republican seats nationwide and underpinning the strong trader consensus behind the Republican nominee. The open-seat race follows incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after receiving a presidential endorsement and prevailing in the June 2 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, who won his party's primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. A late scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unexpectedly elevated Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial movement from current baselines to alter the outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,018 거래량
$13,018 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$13,018 거래량
$13,018 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$6,146 거래량
94%
Democratic Party
$6,872 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most reliably Republican seats nationwide and underpinning the strong trader consensus behind the Republican nominee. The open-seat race follows incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after receiving a presidential endorsement and prevailing in the June 2 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, who won his party's primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. A late scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unexpectedly elevated Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial movement from current baselines to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$13,018종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most reliably Republican seats nationwide and underpinning the strong trader consensus behind the Republican nominee. The open-seat race follows incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after receiving a presidential endorsement and prevailing in the June 2 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, who won his party's primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. A late scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unexpectedly elevated Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial movement from current baselines to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$13,018종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th Congressional District carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most reliably Republican seats nationwide and underpinning the strong trader consensus behind the Republican nominee. The open-seat race follows incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after receiving a presidential endorsement and prevailing in the June 2 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, who won his party's primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. A late scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unexpectedly elevated Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial movement from current baselines to alter the outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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