Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair, dominates trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in California's 33rd Congressional District due to his strong fundraising ($3.3 million cash on hand as of late March), consistent double-digit victories (58.8% in 2024), and the district's D+7 partisan lean in San Bernardino County areas like Redlands and Fontana. Multiple underfunded Republican primary challengers—Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems—pose little threat in the June 2 top-two primary, with ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirming Solid/Safe Democratic status post-2025 redistricting. Upsets would require a primary upset, Aguilar scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican wave shifting turnout in this battleground-adjacent but reliably blue seat.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$1,201 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$0 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair, dominates trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in California's 33rd Congressional District due to his strong fundraising ($3.3 million cash on hand as of late March), consistent double-digit victories (58.8% in 2024), and the district's D+7 partisan lean in San Bernardino County areas like Redlands and Fontana. Multiple underfunded Republican primary challengers—Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems—pose little threat in the June 2 top-two primary, with ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirming Solid/Safe Democratic status post-2025 redistricting. Upsets would require a primary upset, Aguilar scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican wave shifting turnout in this battleground-adjacent but reliably blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
거래량
$1,201종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair, dominates trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in California's 33rd Congressional District due to his strong fundraising ($3.3 million cash on hand as of late March), consistent double-digit victories (58.8% in 2024), and the district's D+7 partisan lean in San Bernardino County areas like Redlands and Fontana. Multiple underfunded Republican primary challengers—Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems—pose little threat in the June 2 top-two primary, with ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirming Solid/Safe Democratic status post-2025 redistricting. Upsets would require a primary upset, Aguilar scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican wave shifting turnout in this battleground-adjacent but reliably blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$1,201종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair, dominates trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in California's 33rd Congressional District due to his strong fundraising ($3.3 million cash on hand as of late March), consistent double-digit victories (58.8% in 2024), and the district's D+7 partisan lean in San Bernardino County areas like Redlands and Fontana. Multiple underfunded Republican primary challengers—Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems—pose little threat in the June 2 top-two primary, with ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirming Solid/Safe Democratic status post-2025 redistricting. Upsets would require a primary upset, Aguilar scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican wave shifting turnout in this battleground-adjacent but reliably blue seat.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문