Republican incumbent Mark Messmer secured the nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary, building on his 2024 general election victory of 68 percent in a district rated solidly Republican by nonpartisan analysts with an R+18 partisan voting index. The district encompasses conservative southwest and west-central Indiana areas including Evansville, where Republican candidates have held the seat continuously since 2012 with comfortable margins. Democratic nominee Mary Allen faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and turnout patterns typical of the region. Traders price the Republican outcome at 96.8 percent because no credible developments have emerged to narrow the gap. Late-cycle events such as an incumbent health issue, major scandal, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could still shift the race, though historical base rates for such districts indicate limited volatility.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$36,099 거래량
$36,099 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
97%
민주당
2%
$36,099 거래량
$36,099 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$21,369 거래량
97%
민주당
$14,729 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mark Messmer secured the nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary, building on his 2024 general election victory of 68 percent in a district rated solidly Republican by nonpartisan analysts with an R+18 partisan voting index. The district encompasses conservative southwest and west-central Indiana areas including Evansville, where Republican candidates have held the seat continuously since 2012 with comfortable margins. Democratic nominee Mary Allen faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and turnout patterns typical of the region. Traders price the Republican outcome at 96.8 percent because no credible developments have emerged to narrow the gap. Late-cycle events such as an incumbent health issue, major scandal, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could still shift the race, though historical base rates for such districts indicate limited volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$36,099종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mark Messmer secured the nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary, building on his 2024 general election victory of 68 percent in a district rated solidly Republican by nonpartisan analysts with an R+18 partisan voting index. The district encompasses conservative southwest and west-central Indiana areas including Evansville, where Republican candidates have held the seat continuously since 2012 with comfortable margins. Democratic nominee Mary Allen faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and turnout patterns typical of the region. Traders price the Republican outcome at 96.8 percent because no credible developments have emerged to narrow the gap. Late-cycle events such as an incumbent health issue, major scandal, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could still shift the race, though historical base rates for such districts indicate limited volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$36,099종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Mark Messmer secured the nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary, building on his 2024 general election victory of 68 percent in a district rated solidly Republican by nonpartisan analysts with an R+18 partisan voting index. The district encompasses conservative southwest and west-central Indiana areas including Evansville, where Republican candidates have held the seat continuously since 2012 with comfortable margins. Democratic nominee Mary Allen faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and turnout patterns typical of the region. Traders price the Republican outcome at 96.8 percent because no credible developments have emerged to narrow the gap. Late-cycle events such as an incumbent health issue, major scandal, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could still shift the race, though historical base rates for such districts indicate limited volatility.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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