Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a structural edge in California's 21st congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voter Index registers a D+4 to D+6 lean and Democrats maintain a sizable registration advantage over Republicans. Costa's moderate record and consistent reelection in this Central Valley seat, including a 2024 victory by roughly five points, underpin trader expectations of continued Democratic control. Multiple Republicans, including recent entrant Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios, have launched challenges ahead of the June 2 primary, yet none has demonstrated the fundraising or name recognition to close the gap. The implied 87.5% probability for Democrats captures these fundamentals while leaving room for shifts from primary turnout or broader midterm dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
12%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$2,907 거래량
88%
Republican Party
$1,394 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a structural edge in California's 21st congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voter Index registers a D+4 to D+6 lean and Democrats maintain a sizable registration advantage over Republicans. Costa's moderate record and consistent reelection in this Central Valley seat, including a 2024 victory by roughly five points, underpin trader expectations of continued Democratic control. Multiple Republicans, including recent entrant Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios, have launched challenges ahead of the June 2 primary, yet none has demonstrated the fundraising or name recognition to close the gap. The implied 87.5% probability for Democrats captures these fundamentals while leaving room for shifts from primary turnout or broader midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$4,301종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a structural edge in California's 21st congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voter Index registers a D+4 to D+6 lean and Democrats maintain a sizable registration advantage over Republicans. Costa's moderate record and consistent reelection in this Central Valley seat, including a 2024 victory by roughly five points, underpin trader expectations of continued Democratic control. Multiple Republicans, including recent entrant Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios, have launched challenges ahead of the June 2 primary, yet none has demonstrated the fundraising or name recognition to close the gap. The implied 87.5% probability for Democrats captures these fundamentals while leaving room for shifts from primary turnout or broader midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$4,301종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a structural edge in California's 21st congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voter Index registers a D+4 to D+6 lean and Democrats maintain a sizable registration advantage over Republicans. Costa's moderate record and consistent reelection in this Central Valley seat, including a 2024 victory by roughly five points, underpin trader expectations of continued Democratic control. Multiple Republicans, including recent entrant Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios, have launched challenges ahead of the June 2 primary, yet none has demonstrated the fundraising or name recognition to close the gap. The implied 87.5% probability for Democrats captures these fundamentals while leaving room for shifts from primary turnout or broader midterm dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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