Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district against Republican nominee Gregory G. Cunningham, who secured his party’s nomination in the June 2 primary. Forecasters rate the seat Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic based on its even partisan voter index and Vasquez’s prior victories, including a narrow 2024 reelection. An April poll showed the Democrat leading by just two points within the margin of error, while a May survey highlighted Cunningham’s low name recognition and Vasquez’s underwater favorability amid broader Democratic brand challenges in the district. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 55.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting the structural edge for the sitting member in a competitive environment where turnout and late-cycle dynamics could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,544 거래량
$17,544 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
44%
민주당
55%
$17,544 거래량
$17,544 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
$16,048 거래량
44%
민주당
$1,496 거래량
55%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district against Republican nominee Gregory G. Cunningham, who secured his party’s nomination in the June 2 primary. Forecasters rate the seat Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic based on its even partisan voter index and Vasquez’s prior victories, including a narrow 2024 reelection. An April poll showed the Democrat leading by just two points within the margin of error, while a May survey highlighted Cunningham’s low name recognition and Vasquez’s underwater favorability amid broader Democratic brand challenges in the district. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 55.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting the structural edge for the sitting member in a competitive environment where turnout and late-cycle dynamics could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
거래량
$17,544종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district against Republican nominee Gregory G. Cunningham, who secured his party’s nomination in the June 2 primary. Forecasters rate the seat Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic based on its even partisan voter index and Vasquez’s prior victories, including a narrow 2024 reelection. An April poll showed the Democrat leading by just two points within the margin of error, while a May survey highlighted Cunningham’s low name recognition and Vasquez’s underwater favorability amid broader Democratic brand challenges in the district. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 55.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting the structural edge for the sitting member in a competitive environment where turnout and late-cycle dynamics could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,544종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district against Republican nominee Gregory G. Cunningham, who secured his party’s nomination in the June 2 primary. Forecasters rate the seat Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic based on its even partisan voter index and Vasquez’s prior victories, including a narrow 2024 reelection. An April poll showed the Democrat leading by just two points within the margin of error, while a May survey highlighted Cunningham’s low name recognition and Vasquez’s underwater favorability amid broader Democratic brand challenges in the district. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 55.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting the structural edge for the sitting member in a competitive environment where turnout and late-cycle dynamics could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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