Trader consensus prices Republican House seats below 190 at 35.5% and 190-194 at 31.0%, reflecting a Democratic generic ballot edge of 5.4 points in Nate Silver's April 15 average amid stable polling during the unpopular Iran War, where Democrats have excelled in recent special elections. This positions the GOP's slim 218-seat majority vulnerable to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, exacerbated by 36 Republican retirements versus 21 Democrats and Cook Political Report's April 7 shifts tilting five competitive races toward Democrats in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. The tight contest persists due to narrow polling margins, uncertain primary outcomes in swing states, and Electoral College-like district math favoring incumbents. Shifts in presidential approval, economic data, or war escalation could widen separation ahead of November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$204,848 거래량
$204,848 거래량
2026.11.03
190석 미만
36%
190-194
31%
195-199
13%
200-204
7%
205-209
5%
210-214
2%
215-219
5%
220-224
5%
225-229
3%
230석 이상
<1%
$204,848 거래량
$204,848 거래량
2026.11.03
190석 미만
$8,957 거래량
36%
190-194
$5,682 거래량
31%
195-199
$26,564 거래량
13%
200-204
$20,990 거래량
7%
205-209
$32,330 거래량
5%
210-214
$11,123 거래량
2%
215-219
$5,281 거래량
5%
220-224
$50,757 거래량
5%
225-229
$19,139 거래량
3%
230석 이상
$24,026 거래량
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices Republican House seats below 190 at 35.5% and 190-194 at 31.0%, reflecting a Democratic generic ballot edge of 5.4 points in Nate Silver's April 15 average amid stable polling during the unpopular Iran War, where Democrats have excelled in recent special elections. This positions the GOP's slim 218-seat majority vulnerable to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, exacerbated by 36 Republican retirements versus 21 Democrats and Cook Political Report's April 7 shifts tilting five competitive races toward Democrats in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. The tight contest persists due to narrow polling margins, uncertain primary outcomes in swing states, and Electoral College-like district math favoring incumbents. Shifts in presidential approval, economic data, or war escalation could widen separation ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
거래량
$204,848종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices Republican House seats below 190 at 35.5% and 190-194 at 31.0%, reflecting a Democratic generic ballot edge of 5.4 points in Nate Silver's April 15 average amid stable polling during the unpopular Iran War, where Democrats have excelled in recent special elections. This positions the GOP's slim 218-seat majority vulnerable to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, exacerbated by 36 Republican retirements versus 21 Democrats and Cook Political Report's April 7 shifts tilting five competitive races toward Democrats in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. The tight contest persists due to narrow polling margins, uncertain primary outcomes in swing states, and Electoral College-like district math favoring incumbents. Shifts in presidential approval, economic data, or war escalation could widen separation ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$204,848종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Republican House seats below 190 at 35.5% and 190-194 at 31.0%, reflecting a Democratic generic ballot edge of 5.4 points in Nate Silver's April 15 average amid stable polling during the unpopular Iran War, where Democrats have excelled in recent special elections. This positions the GOP's slim 218-seat majority vulnerable to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, exacerbated by 36 Republican retirements versus 21 Democrats and Cook Political Report's April 7 shifts tilting five competitive races toward Democrats in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. The tight contest persists due to narrow polling margins, uncertain primary outcomes in swing states, and Electoral College-like district math favoring incumbents. Shifts in presidential approval, economic data, or war escalation could widen separation ahead of November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문