The collapse of the first direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12—after 21 hours of negotiations where Iran rejected a US proposal for a 20-year nuclear enrichment suspension—has heightened skepticism among traders for a permanent peace deal anytime soon. The Trump administration escalated with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz effective April 13, coupled with new Treasury sanctions on Iran's oil infrastructure and buyers like Chinese banks, aiming to force concessions amid a global energy crunch. Indirect diplomacy via Pakistani mediators persists, with a second round of talks potentially this week, but core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and regional proxies remain unresolved, underscoring significant barriers to any formal treaty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$7,593,554 거래량
2026.04.30
4월 22일
22%
4월 30일
37%
5월 31일
60%
6월 30일
72%
$7,593,554 거래량
4월 22일
$5,051,465 거래량
22%
4월 30일
$1,399,734 거래량
37%
5월 31일
$929,645 거래량
60%
6월 30일
$224,432 거래량
72%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The collapse of the first direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12—after 21 hours of negotiations where Iran rejected a US proposal for a 20-year nuclear enrichment suspension—has heightened skepticism among traders for a permanent peace deal anytime soon. The Trump administration escalated with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz effective April 13, coupled with new Treasury sanctions on Iran's oil infrastructure and buyers like Chinese banks, aiming to force concessions amid a global energy crunch. Indirect diplomacy via Pakistani mediators persists, with a second round of talks potentially this week, but core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and regional proxies remain unresolved, underscoring significant barriers to any formal treaty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
거래량
$7,593,554종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The collapse of the first direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12—after 21 hours of negotiations where Iran rejected a US proposal for a 20-year nuclear enrichment suspension—has heightened skepticism among traders for a permanent peace deal anytime soon. The Trump administration escalated with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz effective April 13, coupled with new Treasury sanctions on Iran's oil infrastructure and buyers like Chinese banks, aiming to force concessions amid a global energy crunch. Indirect diplomacy via Pakistani mediators persists, with a second round of talks potentially this week, but core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and regional proxies remain unresolved, underscoring significant barriers to any formal treaty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$7,593,554종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The collapse of the first direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12—after 21 hours of negotiations where Iran rejected a US proposal for a 20-year nuclear enrichment suspension—has heightened skepticism among traders for a permanent peace deal anytime soon. The Trump administration escalated with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz effective April 13, coupled with new Treasury sanctions on Iran's oil infrastructure and buyers like Chinese banks, aiming to force concessions amid a global energy crunch. Indirect diplomacy via Pakistani mediators persists, with a second round of talks potentially this week, but core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and regional proxies remain unresolved, underscoring significant barriers to any formal treaty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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