US-Iran direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after over 21 hours without agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 that required Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for halted US and Israeli strikes. Sticking points include the duration of any uranium enrichment ban—with the US seeking 20 years versus Iran's shorter timeline—full sanctions relief, war reparations, and Hormuz transit fees. President Trump indicated possible resumption of talks soon via Pakistan mediation, amid US implementation of an Iranian port blockade and threats of escalation if diplomacy fails. Permanent peace faces steep barriers from nuclear disputes, proxy conflicts, and Israeli security concerns, with the ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$7,543,723 거래량
2026.05.31
4월 22일
24%
4월 30일
41%
5월 31일
59%
6월 30일
71%
$7,543,723 거래량
4월 22일
$5,027,595 거래량
24%
4월 30일
$1,370,005 거래량
41%
5월 31일
$925,449 거래량
59%
6월 30일
$223,560 거래량
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after over 21 hours without agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 that required Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for halted US and Israeli strikes. Sticking points include the duration of any uranium enrichment ban—with the US seeking 20 years versus Iran's shorter timeline—full sanctions relief, war reparations, and Hormuz transit fees. President Trump indicated possible resumption of talks soon via Pakistan mediation, amid US implementation of an Iranian port blockade and threats of escalation if diplomacy fails. Permanent peace faces steep barriers from nuclear disputes, proxy conflicts, and Israeli security concerns, with the ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
거래량
$7,543,723종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after over 21 hours without agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 that required Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for halted US and Israeli strikes. Sticking points include the duration of any uranium enrichment ban—with the US seeking 20 years versus Iran's shorter timeline—full sanctions relief, war reparations, and Hormuz transit fees. President Trump indicated possible resumption of talks soon via Pakistan mediation, amid US implementation of an Iranian port blockade and threats of escalation if diplomacy fails. Permanent peace faces steep barriers from nuclear disputes, proxy conflicts, and Israeli security concerns, with the ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$7,543,723종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after over 21 hours without agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 that required Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for halted US and Israeli strikes. Sticking points include the duration of any uranium enrichment ban—with the US seeking 20 years versus Iran's shorter timeline—full sanctions relief, war reparations, and Hormuz transit fees. President Trump indicated possible resumption of talks soon via Pakistan mediation, amid US implementation of an Iranian port blockade and threats of escalation if diplomacy fails. Permanent peace faces steep barriers from nuclear disputes, proxy conflicts, and Israeli security concerns, with the ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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