Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 73% implied probability to hold the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent surge to near-top Elo scores around 1550, particularly in coding and reasoning tasks, solidifying its competitive positioning behind presumed leaders like OpenAI or Google models. Meta's 18% share reflects momentum from its April 8 launch of Muse Spark, the first model from its Superintelligence Labs, which has posted strong initial benchmarks in multimodal reasoning and is accruing votes rapidly in the leaderboard's crowdsourced battles. Lower odds for Google (4%) and others stem from stagnant recent performances amid fierce rivalry; with two weeks until resolution, new model drops or vote shifts could still alter the top three.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 73%
Meta 18%
구글 3.9%
OpenAI 1.9%
$54,907 거래량
$54,907 거래량
2026.04.30
Anthropic
73%
Meta
18%
구글
4%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
알리바바
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
미투안
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
바이두
<1%
아마존
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
Anthropic 73%
Meta 18%
구글 3.9%
OpenAI 1.9%
$54,907 거래량
$54,907 거래량
2026.04.30
Anthropic
$13,479 거래량
73%
Meta
$2,365 거래량
18%
구글
$6,117 거래량
4%
OpenAI
$2,913 거래량
2%
xAI
$4,423 거래량
1%
알리바바
$2,383 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$2,551 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$4,216 거래량
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,714 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$2,606 거래량
<1%
미투안
$1,996 거래량
<1%
Moonshot
$3,174 거래량
<1%
바이두
$2,017 거래량
<1%
아마존
$3,852 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$102 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 73% implied probability to hold the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent surge to near-top Elo scores around 1550, particularly in coding and reasoning tasks, solidifying its competitive positioning behind presumed leaders like OpenAI or Google models. Meta's 18% share reflects momentum from its April 8 launch of Muse Spark, the first model from its Superintelligence Labs, which has posted strong initial benchmarks in multimodal reasoning and is accruing votes rapidly in the leaderboard's crowdsourced battles. Lower odds for Google (4%) and others stem from stagnant recent performances amid fierce rivalry; with two weeks until resolution, new model drops or vote shifts could still alter the top three.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
거래량
$54,907종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 73% implied probability to hold the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent surge to near-top Elo scores around 1550, particularly in coding and reasoning tasks, solidifying its competitive positioning behind presumed leaders like OpenAI or Google models. Meta's 18% share reflects momentum from its April 8 launch of Muse Spark, the first model from its Superintelligence Labs, which has posted strong initial benchmarks in multimodal reasoning and is accruing votes rapidly in the leaderboard's crowdsourced battles. Lower odds for Google (4%) and others stem from stagnant recent performances amid fierce rivalry; with two weeks until resolution, new model drops or vote shifts could still alter the top three.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$54,907종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 73% implied probability to hold the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent surge to near-top Elo scores around 1550, particularly in coding and reasoning tasks, solidifying its competitive positioning behind presumed leaders like OpenAI or Google models. Meta's 18% share reflects momentum from its April 8 launch of Muse Spark, the first model from its Superintelligence Labs, which has posted strong initial benchmarks in multimodal reasoning and is accruing votes rapidly in the leaderboard's crowdsourced battles. Lower odds for Google (4%) and others stem from stagnant recent performances amid fierce rivalry; with two weeks until resolution, new model drops or vote shifts could still alter the top three.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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