Canada’s population trajectory in 2026 remains closely balanced around even odds because federal policy has sharply curtailed temporary resident admissions while stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually. Recent Statistics Canada data confirmed the first year-over-year national decline on record as of January 1, 2026, driven by sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that offset permanent inflows. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat growth for the year overall, with the non-permanent resident share targeted to fall toward 5 percent by year-end. Developments that could shift the balance include faster or slower departures among temporary workers and students, any mid-year policy adjustments to labor-market needs, or changes in interprovincial movement and natural increase.