Trader consensus favors a 57% implied probability of Canada's population declining by Q4 2026 relative to Q4 2025, driven by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's 2026-2028 levels plan slashing temporary resident admissions to 385,000—43% below 2025 targets—and permanent resident caps at 380,000. Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed the first quarterly population drop on record, falling 103,504 to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, amid a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February projection of flat growth underscores net migration slowdowns offsetting natural increase, with housing pressures and policy shifts sustaining downward momentum absent major reversals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUp
NOWE
NOWE
Apr 30, 2027
Up
NOWE
NOWE
Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a 57% implied probability of Canada's population declining by Q4 2026 relative to Q4 2025, driven by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's 2026-2028 levels plan slashing temporary resident admissions to 385,000—43% below 2025 targets—and permanent resident caps at 380,000. Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed the first quarterly population drop on record, falling 103,504 to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, amid a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February projection of flat growth underscores net migration slowdowns offsetting natural increase, with housing pressures and policy shifts sustaining downward momentum absent major reversals.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,413Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a 57% implied probability of Canada's population declining by Q4 2026 relative to Q4 2025, driven by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's 2026-2028 levels plan slashing temporary resident admissions to 385,000—43% below 2025 targets—and permanent resident caps at 380,000. Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed the first quarterly population drop on record, falling 103,504 to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, amid a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February projection of flat growth underscores net migration slowdowns offsetting natural increase, with housing pressures and policy shifts sustaining downward momentum absent major reversals.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,413Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors a 57% implied probability of Canada's population declining by Q4 2026 relative to Q4 2025, driven by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's 2026-2028 levels plan slashing temporary resident admissions to 385,000—43% below 2025 targets—and permanent resident caps at 380,000. Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed the first quarterly population drop on record, falling 103,504 to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, amid a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February projection of flat growth underscores net migration slowdowns offsetting natural increase, with housing pressures and policy shifts sustaining downward momentum absent major reversals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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