Recent AEMET and Met Office forecasts indicate a maximum of 35–36°C for Madrid on August 19 under persistent high pressure and clear skies, positioning 36°C as the market leader at 48% implied probability. Model consensus from ECMWF runs shows limited day-to-day variability, with minimal cloud cover or Atlantic fronts expected to moderate temperatures before the resolution window. Historical August baselines in central Spain average near 32–34°C, but current stability favors the upper end of the typical range, supporting elevated odds for 36–37°C outcomes. Updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours could shift probabilities if any late-model adjustments alter the thermal profile.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
36°C 49%
37°C 24%
35°C 19%
34°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
5%
35°C
19%
36°C
49%
37°C
24%
38°C
4%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 49%
37°C 24%
35°C 19%
34°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
$64 Wol.
1%
33°C
$114 Wol.
4%
34°C
$69 Wol.
5%
35°C
$137 Wol.
19%
36°C
$210 Wol.
49%
37°C
$384 Wol.
24%
38°C
$62 Wol.
4%
39°C
$77 Wol.
1%
40°C
$5 Wol.
1%
41°C
$49 Wol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$49 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and Met Office forecasts indicate a maximum of 35–36°C for Madrid on August 19 under persistent high pressure and clear skies, positioning 36°C as the market leader at 48% implied probability. Model consensus from ECMWF runs shows limited day-to-day variability, with minimal cloud cover or Atlantic fronts expected to moderate temperatures before the resolution window. Historical August baselines in central Spain average near 32–34°C, but current stability favors the upper end of the typical range, supporting elevated odds for 36–37°C outcomes. Updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours could shift probabilities if any late-model adjustments alter the thermal profile.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,221Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and Met Office forecasts indicate a maximum of 35–36°C for Madrid on August 19 under persistent high pressure and clear skies, positioning 36°C as the market leader at 48% implied probability. Model consensus from ECMWF runs shows limited day-to-day variability, with minimal cloud cover or Atlantic fronts expected to moderate temperatures before the resolution window. Historical August baselines in central Spain average near 32–34°C, but current stability favors the upper end of the typical range, supporting elevated odds for 36–37°C outcomes. Updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours could shift probabilities if any late-model adjustments alter the thermal profile.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,221Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and Met Office forecasts indicate a maximum of 35–36°C for Madrid on August 19 under persistent high pressure and clear skies, positioning 36°C as the market leader at 48% implied probability. Model consensus from ECMWF runs shows limited day-to-day variability, with minimal cloud cover or Atlantic fronts expected to moderate temperatures before the resolution window. Historical August baselines in central Spain average near 32–34°C, but current stability favors the upper end of the typical range, supporting elevated odds for 36–37°C outcomes. Updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours could shift probabilities if any late-model adjustments alter the thermal profile.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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