Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office and seasonal outlooks from NIWA point to a maximum of 10–11°C in Wellington on August 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow and residual polar air masses typical of mid-winter conditions in the region. These align with climatological norms of 12°C average highs for August, while recent cold snaps and above-average rainfall have kept daytime peaks suppressed. Trader consensus, reflected in the 54.5% implied probability for 11°C, incorporates model agreement on limited warming under cloudy skies and moderate winds, with lower odds on 12°C or 10°C capturing uncertainty in exact timing of any ridge buildup. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on August 19?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 19?
11°C 55%
12°C 27%
10°C 16%
8°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
5°C or below
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
3%
10°C
16%
11°C
55%
12°C
27%
13°C
3%
14°C
3%
15°C or higher
1%
11°C 55%
12°C 27%
10°C 16%
8°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
5°C or below
$196 Wol.
1%
6°C
$186 Wol.
<1%
7°C
$76 Wol.
1%
8°C
$5 Wol.
3%
9°C
$101 Wol.
3%
10°C
$361 Wol.
16%
11°C
$1,294 Wol.
55%
12°C
$272 Wol.
27%
13°C
$107 Wol.
3%
14°C
$5 Wol.
3%
15°C or higher
$41 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office and seasonal outlooks from NIWA point to a maximum of 10–11°C in Wellington on August 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow and residual polar air masses typical of mid-winter conditions in the region. These align with climatological norms of 12°C average highs for August, while recent cold snaps and above-average rainfall have kept daytime peaks suppressed. Trader consensus, reflected in the 54.5% implied probability for 11°C, incorporates model agreement on limited warming under cloudy skies and moderate winds, with lower odds on 12°C or 10°C capturing uncertainty in exact timing of any ridge buildup. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,643Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office and seasonal outlooks from NIWA point to a maximum of 10–11°C in Wellington on August 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow and residual polar air masses typical of mid-winter conditions in the region. These align with climatological norms of 12°C average highs for August, while recent cold snaps and above-average rainfall have kept daytime peaks suppressed. Trader consensus, reflected in the 54.5% implied probability for 11°C, incorporates model agreement on limited warming under cloudy skies and moderate winds, with lower odds on 12°C or 10°C capturing uncertainty in exact timing of any ridge buildup. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,643Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office and seasonal outlooks from NIWA point to a maximum of 10–11°C in Wellington on August 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow and residual polar air masses typical of mid-winter conditions in the region. These align with climatological norms of 12°C average highs for August, while recent cold snaps and above-average rainfall have kept daytime peaks suppressed. Trader consensus, reflected in the 54.5% implied probability for 11°C, incorporates model agreement on limited warming under cloudy skies and moderate winds, with lower odds on 12°C or 10°C capturing uncertainty in exact timing of any ridge buildup. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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