Xi Jinping’s ongoing purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command and Central Committee, including the recent removals of senior figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on disciplinary grounds, have dismantled potential rival networks and reinforced centralized loyalty ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary. These actions, combined with intensified ideological rectification and anti-corruption enforcement targeting factionalism, have left few independent power centers capable of organizing a challenge. Trader consensus around a low probability of a coup attempt before 2027 reflects this institutional tightening and the absence of verified elite fractures or military mobilizations. Unconfirmed rumors of leadership health issues or internal dissent have surfaced but lack substantiation and have not altered control dynamics. Even so, an unforeseen medical event, rapid external crisis escalation, or miscalculation during succession planning could still introduce volatility before the end of 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
5% chance
$158,892 Vol.
$158,892 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$158,892 Vol.
$158,892 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command and Central Committee, including the recent removals of senior figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on disciplinary grounds, have dismantled potential rival networks and reinforced centralized loyalty ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary. These actions, combined with intensified ideological rectification and anti-corruption enforcement targeting factionalism, have left few independent power centers capable of organizing a challenge. Trader consensus around a low probability of a coup attempt before 2027 reflects this institutional tightening and the absence of verified elite fractures or military mobilizations. Unconfirmed rumors of leadership health issues or internal dissent have surfaced but lack substantiation and have not altered control dynamics. Even so, an unforeseen medical event, rapid external crisis escalation, or miscalculation during succession planning could still introduce volatility before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$158,892Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command and Central Committee, including the recent removals of senior figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on disciplinary grounds, have dismantled potential rival networks and reinforced centralized loyalty ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary. These actions, combined with intensified ideological rectification and anti-corruption enforcement targeting factionalism, have left few independent power centers capable of organizing a challenge. Trader consensus around a low probability of a coup attempt before 2027 reflects this institutional tightening and the absence of verified elite fractures or military mobilizations. Unconfirmed rumors of leadership health issues or internal dissent have surfaced but lack substantiation and have not altered control dynamics. Even so, an unforeseen medical event, rapid external crisis escalation, or miscalculation during succession planning could still introduce volatility before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$158,892Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s ongoing purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command and Central Committee, including the recent removals of senior figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on disciplinary grounds, have dismantled potential rival networks and reinforced centralized loyalty ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary. These actions, combined with intensified ideological rectification and anti-corruption enforcement targeting factionalism, have left few independent power centers capable of organizing a challenge. Trader consensus around a low probability of a coup attempt before 2027 reflects this institutional tightening and the absence of verified elite fractures or military mobilizations. Unconfirmed rumors of leadership health issues or internal dissent have surfaced but lack substantiation and have not altered control dynamics. Even so, an unforeseen medical event, rapid external crisis escalation, or miscalculation during succession planning could still introduce volatility before the end of 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions