Current forecasts from meteorological agencies and models indicate a daily maximum around 32–33°C for Hong Kong on August 6, aligning with the market's leading 33°C outcome at 46% implied probability. In Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate, early August typically features average highs near 31–32°C under the influence of the southwest monsoon, with high humidity amplifying perceived heat. The Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlook for August–October 2026 projects normal to above-normal temperatures, supporting the elevated odds for 33–34°C while the lower probabilities for 35°C+ reflect limited intensification potential absent a heatwave or clear skies. Recent model consensus emphasizes possible afternoon showers that could cap peaks, introducing uncertainty around the 45–55% range for the top outcomes and highlighting the role of short-term forecast updates in refining trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Hong Kong no dia 6 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Hong Kong no dia 6 de agosto?
33°C 46%
32°C 26%
34°C 20%
31°C 7%
NOVO
$59,246 Vol.
NOVO
$59,246 Vol.
6 ago 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
7%
32°C
26%
33°C
46%
34°C
20%
35°C
3%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 46%
32°C 26%
34°C 20%
31°C 7%
NOVO
$59,246 Vol.
NOVO
$59,246 Vol.
6 ago 2026
27°C or below
$6,488 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,869 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,164 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$6,660 Vol.
1%
31°C
$8,402 Vol.
7%
32°C
$14,544 Vol.
26%
33°C
$11,213 Vol.
46%
34°C
$5,241 Vol.
20%
35°C
$4,398 Vol.
3%
36°C
$2,598 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$1,866 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies and models indicate a daily maximum around 32–33°C for Hong Kong on August 6, aligning with the market's leading 33°C outcome at 46% implied probability. In Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate, early August typically features average highs near 31–32°C under the influence of the southwest monsoon, with high humidity amplifying perceived heat. The Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlook for August–October 2026 projects normal to above-normal temperatures, supporting the elevated odds for 33–34°C while the lower probabilities for 35°C+ reflect limited intensification potential absent a heatwave or clear skies. Recent model consensus emphasizes possible afternoon showers that could cap peaks, introducing uncertainty around the 45–55% range for the top outcomes and highlighting the role of short-term forecast updates in refining trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$59,246Data de Término
6 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies and models indicate a daily maximum around 32–33°C for Hong Kong on August 6, aligning with the market's leading 33°C outcome at 46% implied probability. In Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate, early August typically features average highs near 31–32°C under the influence of the southwest monsoon, with high humidity amplifying perceived heat. The Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlook for August–October 2026 projects normal to above-normal temperatures, supporting the elevated odds for 33–34°C while the lower probabilities for 35°C+ reflect limited intensification potential absent a heatwave or clear skies. Recent model consensus emphasizes possible afternoon showers that could cap peaks, introducing uncertainty around the 45–55% range for the top outcomes and highlighting the role of short-term forecast updates in refining trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$59,246Data de Término
6 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological agencies and models indicate a daily maximum around 32–33°C for Hong Kong on August 6, aligning with the market's leading 33°C outcome at 46% implied probability. In Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate, early August typically features average highs near 31–32°C under the influence of the southwest monsoon, with high humidity amplifying perceived heat. The Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlook for August–October 2026 projects normal to above-normal temperatures, supporting the elevated odds for 33–34°C while the lower probabilities for 35°C+ reflect limited intensification potential absent a heatwave or clear skies. Recent model consensus emphasizes possible afternoon showers that could cap peaks, introducing uncertainty around the 45–55% range for the top outcomes and highlighting the role of short-term forecast updates in refining trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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