Current forecast models indicate peak temperatures in Busan on August 7 will most likely fall between 35°C and 37°C, supporting the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly monsoon flows are advecting warm, moist Pacific air over the region, with urban heat island effects in Busan potentially amplifying daytime maxima. Minor differences among outcomes hinge on variables such as cloud cover timing, sea breeze onset, and boundary layer mixing, which can shift the daily high by 1–2°C. Updated Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and global ensemble runs in the coming 48 hours will provide clearer signals on whether conditions favor the upper or lower end of this range.