Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched implied probabilities for Istanbul's highest temperature today at 13°C (40%) and 12°C (33.5%), driven by the latest morning forecast updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peak afternoon highs in the 12-13°C range amid a cool northerly airflow and partly cloudy conditions. Current observations show morning temperatures hovering near 11°C with light winds around 5-10 km/h, limiting solar heating potential while urban heat island effects in Istanbul provide modest uplift. Differentiating factors include model spread of 1-2°C—persistent cloud cover could cap at 12°C, whereas afternoon clearing might nudge toward 13-14°C—against an April climatological average of 16°C. Hourly MGM updates and official station measurements will resolve the market by midnight, underscoring inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 12?
13°C 39%
12°C 35%
11°C 14.3%
14°C 7.1%
$22,448 Vol.
$22,448 Vol.
12 abr 2026
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
14%
12°C
35%
13°C
39%
14°C
7%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
1%
13°C 39%
12°C 35%
11°C 14.3%
14°C 7.1%
$22,448 Vol.
$22,448 Vol.
12 abr 2026
8°C
$1,253 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,135 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,317 Vol.
1%
11°C
$1,804 Vol.
14%
12°C
$1,420 Vol.
35%
13°C
$1,210 Vol.
39%
14°C
$1,932 Vol.
7%
15°C
$4,376 Vol.
1%
16°C or higher
$3,754 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched implied probabilities for Istanbul's highest temperature today at 13°C (40%) and 12°C (33.5%), driven by the latest morning forecast updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peak afternoon highs in the 12-13°C range amid a cool northerly airflow and partly cloudy conditions. Current observations show morning temperatures hovering near 11°C with light winds around 5-10 km/h, limiting solar heating potential while urban heat island effects in Istanbul provide modest uplift. Differentiating factors include model spread of 1-2°C—persistent cloud cover could cap at 12°C, whereas afternoon clearing might nudge toward 13-14°C—against an April climatological average of 16°C. Hourly MGM updates and official station measurements will resolve the market by midnight, underscoring inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$22,448Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Janela de disputa
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched implied probabilities for Istanbul's highest temperature today at 13°C (40%) and 12°C (33.5%), driven by the latest morning forecast updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peak afternoon highs in the 12-13°C range amid a cool northerly airflow and partly cloudy conditions. Current observations show morning temperatures hovering near 11°C with light winds around 5-10 km/h, limiting solar heating potential while urban heat island effects in Istanbul provide modest uplift. Differentiating factors include model spread of 1-2°C—persistent cloud cover could cap at 12°C, whereas afternoon clearing might nudge toward 13-14°C—against an April climatological average of 16°C. Hourly MGM updates and official station measurements will resolve the market by midnight, underscoring inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,448Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Janela de disputa
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched implied probabilities for Istanbul's highest temperature today at 13°C (40%) and 12°C (33.5%), driven by the latest morning forecast updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peak afternoon highs in the 12-13°C range amid a cool northerly airflow and partly cloudy conditions. Current observations show morning temperatures hovering near 11°C with light winds around 5-10 km/h, limiting solar heating potential while urban heat island effects in Istanbul provide modest uplift. Differentiating factors include model spread of 1-2°C—persistent cloud cover could cap at 12°C, whereas afternoon clearing might nudge toward 13-14°C—against an April climatological average of 16°C. Hourly MGM updates and official station measurements will resolve the market by midnight, underscoring inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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