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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 12?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 12?

abr 10

abr 11

abr 12

abr 13

abr 10

abr 11

abr 12

abr 13

28°C 51%

27°C 25.3%

29°C 18%

30°C or higher 7%

Polymarket

$29,842 Vol.

28°C 51%

27°C 25.3%

29°C 18%

30°C or higher 7%

Polymarket

$29,842 Vol.

20°C or below

$2,096 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$2,905 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$1,624 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$2,640 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$1,397 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$2,574 Vol.

<1%

26°C

$4,783 Vol.

3%

27°C

$4,648 Vol.

25%

28°C

$1,782 Vol.

51%

29°C

$2,427 Vol.

18%

30°C or higher

$2,976 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day forecast, updated April 11, projects a maximum temperature range of 26–29°C for April 12 under a southerly airstream ushering warm, moist air across the Guangdong coast, with mainly cloudy conditions, isolated showers, and sunny intervals fostering daytime highs around 28°C—aligning with trader consensus at 52.5% market-implied probability. High relative humidity (70–90%) and cloud cover limit escalation to 30°C or higher (6.5% odds), while 27°C trails at 25.4% as a conservative outcome amid model spread. This warm spell exceeds April climatological norms of ~25°C, per HKO's above-normal seasonal outlook, with recent enhancements to heat index monitoring on April 10 signaling persistent heat. Hourly observations and afternoon updates will clarify the peak.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,842
Data de Término
12 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day forecast, updated April 11, projects a maximum temperature range of 26–29°C for April 12 under a southerly airstream ushering warm, moist air across the Guangdong coast, with mainly cloudy conditions, isolated showers, and sunny intervals fostering daytime highs around 28°C—aligning with trader consensus at 52.5% market-implied probability. High relative humidity (70–90%) and cloud cover limit escalation to 30°C or higher (6.5% odds), while 27°C trails at 25.4% as a conservative outcome amid model spread. This warm spell exceeds April climatological norms of ~25°C, per HKO's above-normal seasonal outlook, with recent enhancements to heat index monitoring on April 10 signaling persistent heat. Hourly observations and afternoon updates will clarify the peak.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,842
Data de Término
12 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 12?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "28°C" at 51%, followed by "27°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 12?" has generated $29.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 12?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 12?" is "28°C" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "27°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 12?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.