Recent Met Office forecasts for London on August 6 project a daytime maximum of 22°C under sunny intervals following a cooler northerly flow, aligning closely with ensemble model consensus from multiple centers that places the most likely outcome between 22–24°C. This reflects a moderation from earlier August warmth driven by transient high pressure, consistent with climatological norms for early August where daily highs average near 22–23°C. Traders have priced 23°C as the modal outcome at 45.5% implied probability, with tight clustering around adjacent values indicating limited expected variance from current guidance; any shift in steering patterns or boundary-layer mixing could alter the peak by 1–2°C before resolution.