Latest AEMET forecasts from Spain's national meteorological agency project a maximum temperature of 27°C in Madrid on April 17, fueling trader consensus with 37% implied probability each for 26°C and 27°C amid a tightening race. This reflects a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia, ushering warm southerly winds and abundant sunshine with near-zero precipitation risk, pushing highs well above the April climatological average of 18°C. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread of 26–28°C, differentiated by minor variances in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat effects at the Barajas or Retiro stations. Updated 12z runs expected Thursday could sharpen resolution before the event.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 17?
26°C 36%
27°C 36%
28°C 14%
25°C 12%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
12%
26°C
36%
27°C
36%
28°C
14%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 36%
27°C 36%
28°C 14%
25°C 12%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
12%
26°C
36%
27°C
36%
28°C
14%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 15, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecasts from Spain's national meteorological agency project a maximum temperature of 27°C in Madrid on April 17, fueling trader consensus with 37% implied probability each for 26°C and 27°C amid a tightening race. This reflects a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia, ushering warm southerly winds and abundant sunshine with near-zero precipitation risk, pushing highs well above the April climatological average of 18°C. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread of 26–28°C, differentiated by minor variances in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat effects at the Barajas or Retiro stations. Updated 12z runs expected Thursday could sharpen resolution before the event.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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