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Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?

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11°C or higher 98.6%

10°C 1.7%

9°C <1%

8°C <1%

Polymarket

$22,918 Vol.

11°C or higher 98.6%

10°C 1.7%

9°C <1%

8°C <1%

Polymarket

$22,918 Vol.

8°C

$1,946 Vol.

<1%

9°C

$1,554 Vol.

<1%

10°C

$1,700 Vol.

2%

11°C or higher

$1,701 Vol.

99%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (Roshydromet) forecasts Moscow's daytime highs of 16–18°C on April 3 under cloudy skies with clearings and no precipitation, driving the 98.7% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher as trader consensus reflects this strong signal from official data. Persistent positive temperature anomalies—building on March's +4.5°C excess above norms—and zonal upper-air steering of mild Atlantic air masses into European Russia underpin the positioning, contrasting early April climatological averages of 9–11°C. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS align on above-normal warmth with low precipitation risk. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or thickened cloud cover capping peaks below 11°C, though synoptic stability limits this; Roshydromet's hourly station observations, including VVC and Balchug, will confirm the peak by resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,918
Data de Término
3 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (Roshydromet) forecasts Moscow's daytime highs of 16–18°C on April 3 under cloudy skies with clearings and no precipitation, driving the 98.7% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher as trader consensus reflects this strong signal from official data. Persistent positive temperature anomalies—building on March's +4.5°C excess above norms—and zonal upper-air steering of mild Atlantic air masses into European Russia underpin the positioning, contrasting early April climatological averages of 9–11°C. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS align on above-normal warmth with low precipitation risk. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or thickened cloud cover capping peaks below 11°C, though synoptic stability limits this; Roshydromet's hourly station observations, including VVC and Balchug, will confirm the peak by resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,918
Data de Término
3 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "11°C or higher" at 99%, followed by "10°C" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?" has generated $22.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?" is "11°C or higher" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10°C" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.