**Current forecasts indicate a nighttime low near 24–25°C for Tel Aviv on September 4, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with light variable winds and minimal cloud cover.** Official and ensemble model guidance from sources such as the Israel Meteorological Service equivalents and global models show daytime highs of 31–32°C moderating to these overnight values, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean patterns where the sea surface temperature (around 28°C) limits radiative cooling. No significant synoptic changes—such as stronger northerly flow, increased humidity, or approaching troughs—are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping variability low. Historical September climatology places average lows at 22–23°C, so the current outlook sits slightly above the mean but well within normal range. The closely matched market probabilities around 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher (both near 49%) and specific bins clustering at 21–25°C (42–46.5%) reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum, including potential model spread or microscale effects like urban heat islands versus coastal stations. With resolution tied to the official daily minimum, upcoming short-range model runs will likely tighten consensus around the mid-20s range.