OpenAI’s reported pivot toward a 2027 IPO to secure a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the dominant factor behind the market’s 83% probability against a pre-2027 listing. After confidentially filing S-1 paperwork in June 2026 and earlier targeting a late-2026 debut, CEO Sam Altman rejected banker advice (from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) to accept a lower price for speed, insisting the threshold is a “non-starter.” The company’s March 2026 private round valued it at roughly $850 billion, while monthly revenue near $2 billion has not yet scaled enough to support the higher public multiple without further growth. This stance aligns with historical patterns where high-growth AI firms delay to capture peak sentiment rather than list prematurely, leaving no major near-term catalysts—such as regulatory deadlines or earnings—that would force a 2026 resolution. Traders view the delay as the most probable path given Altman’s control and the emphasis on valuation over timing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$295,624 Vol.
$295,624 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$295,624 Vol.
$295,624 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s reported pivot toward a 2027 IPO to secure a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the dominant factor behind the market’s 83% probability against a pre-2027 listing. After confidentially filing S-1 paperwork in June 2026 and earlier targeting a late-2026 debut, CEO Sam Altman rejected banker advice (from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) to accept a lower price for speed, insisting the threshold is a “non-starter.” The company’s March 2026 private round valued it at roughly $850 billion, while monthly revenue near $2 billion has not yet scaled enough to support the higher public multiple without further growth. This stance aligns with historical patterns where high-growth AI firms delay to capture peak sentiment rather than list prematurely, leaving no major near-term catalysts—such as regulatory deadlines or earnings—that would force a 2026 resolution. Traders view the delay as the most probable path given Altman’s control and the emphasis on valuation over timing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$295,624Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s reported pivot toward a 2027 IPO to secure a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the dominant factor behind the market’s 83% probability against a pre-2027 listing. After confidentially filing S-1 paperwork in June 2026 and earlier targeting a late-2026 debut, CEO Sam Altman rejected banker advice (from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) to accept a lower price for speed, insisting the threshold is a “non-starter.” The company’s March 2026 private round valued it at roughly $850 billion, while monthly revenue near $2 billion has not yet scaled enough to support the higher public multiple without further growth. This stance aligns with historical patterns where high-growth AI firms delay to capture peak sentiment rather than list prematurely, leaving no major near-term catalysts—such as regulatory deadlines or earnings—that would force a 2026 resolution. Traders view the delay as the most probable path given Altman’s control and the emphasis on valuation over timing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$295,624Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s reported pivot toward a 2027 IPO to secure a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the dominant factor behind the market’s 83% probability against a pre-2027 listing. After confidentially filing S-1 paperwork in June 2026 and earlier targeting a late-2026 debut, CEO Sam Altman rejected banker advice (from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) to accept a lower price for speed, insisting the threshold is a “non-starter.” The company’s March 2026 private round valued it at roughly $850 billion, while monthly revenue near $2 billion has not yet scaled enough to support the higher public multiple without further growth. This stance aligns with historical patterns where high-growth AI firms delay to capture peak sentiment rather than list prematurely, leaving no major near-term catalysts—such as regulatory deadlines or earnings—that would force a 2026 resolution. Traders view the delay as the most probable path given Altman’s control and the emphasis on valuation over timing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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