OpenAI's confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and subsequent internal deliberations have driven the 84% market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus listing before 2027. Recent reporting indicates the company, last valued at $852 billion post-money in March, is leaning toward a 2027 debut to hit that target rather than accept a lower valuation amid softening sentiment for large AI offerings. CEO Sam Altman has reportedly ruled out scaling back the figure, while advisers note the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings or a firm timeline. This cautious approach aligns with typical large-cap tech timelines and reflects trader consensus that regulatory review, market conditions, and the need for further large language model progress make a 2026 $1T+ event unlikely. Key catalysts ahead include earnings updates or competitive AI benchmarks that could accelerate or further delay plans.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
16% chance
$295,825 Vol.
$295,825 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
16% chance
$295,825 Vol.
$295,825 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI's confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and subsequent internal deliberations have driven the 84% market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus listing before 2027. Recent reporting indicates the company, last valued at $852 billion post-money in March, is leaning toward a 2027 debut to hit that target rather than accept a lower valuation amid softening sentiment for large AI offerings. CEO Sam Altman has reportedly ruled out scaling back the figure, while advisers note the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings or a firm timeline. This cautious approach aligns with typical large-cap tech timelines and reflects trader consensus that regulatory review, market conditions, and the need for further large language model progress make a 2026 $1T+ event unlikely. Key catalysts ahead include earnings updates or competitive AI benchmarks that could accelerate or further delay plans.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$295,825Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI's confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and subsequent internal deliberations have driven the 84% market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus listing before 2027. Recent reporting indicates the company, last valued at $852 billion post-money in March, is leaning toward a 2027 debut to hit that target rather than accept a lower valuation amid softening sentiment for large AI offerings. CEO Sam Altman has reportedly ruled out scaling back the figure, while advisers note the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings or a firm timeline. This cautious approach aligns with typical large-cap tech timelines and reflects trader consensus that regulatory review, market conditions, and the need for further large language model progress make a 2026 $1T+ event unlikely. Key catalysts ahead include earnings updates or competitive AI benchmarks that could accelerate or further delay plans.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$295,825Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and subsequent internal deliberations have driven the 84% market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus listing before 2027. Recent reporting indicates the company, last valued at $852 billion post-money in March, is leaning toward a 2027 debut to hit that target rather than accept a lower valuation amid softening sentiment for large AI offerings. CEO Sam Altman has reportedly ruled out scaling back the figure, while advisers note the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings or a firm timeline. This cautious approach aligns with typical large-cap tech timelines and reflects trader consensus that regulatory review, market conditions, and the need for further large language model progress make a 2026 $1T+ event unlikely. Key catalysts ahead include earnings updates or competitive AI benchmarks that could accelerate or further delay plans.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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