Thailand and Cambodia maintain a fragile ceasefire along their disputed land border, established in late December 2025 after two rounds of intense fighting in 2025 that included Thai airstrikes using F-16s and other aircraft against Cambodian positions, artillery exchanges, and significant civilian displacement on both sides. The truce followed mediation involving the United States, China, and ASEAN, yet both militaries continue rearming amid nationalist pressures and unresolved territorial claims centered on ancient temples and border areas. Recent signals include Chinese delivery of tanks to Cambodia and emerging friction over maritime boundaries in the Gulf of Thailand, where Thailand terminated a prior memorandum. These factors sustain trader focus on escalation risks, with any verified Thai cross-border strikes likely to shift implied probabilities sharply depending on timing and international response.