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Política·Médio Oriente

Trump anuncia o fim das operações militares contra o Irã por ...?

Market icon
Política·Médio Oriente

Trump anuncia o fim das operações militares contra o Irã por ...?

$26,899,101 Vol.

21 abr 2026
Polymarket

$26,899,101 Vol.

Polymarket

21 de abril

$1,253,517 Vol.

13%

30 de abril

$5,335,402 Vol.

36%

31 de maio

$364,538 Vol.

72%

30 de junho

$1,946,199 Vol.

82%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed on April 8 following U.S. threats to target Iranian infrastructure, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned today that U.S. forces remain "locked and loaded" to resume combat operations if no deal is reached, while maintaining a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to curb Iran's oil exports and military logistics. President Trump stated in a Fox Business interview this week that the conflict is "very close to over," hinting at possible talks resuming soon, though no formal announcement ending operations has occurred and Iran has downplayed scheduled diplomacy. With the ceasefire nearing expiration around April 22, traders monitor for a breakthrough on nuclear curbs, proxy forces, and Hormuz access that could prompt resolution, against risks of escalation from stalled negotiations or Iranian retaliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,899,101
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 10:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed on April 8 following U.S. threats to target Iranian infrastructure, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned today that U.S. forces remain "locked and loaded" to resume combat operations if no deal is reached, while maintaining a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to curb Iran's oil exports and military logistics. President Trump stated in a Fox Business interview this week that the conflict is "very close to over," hinting at possible talks resuming soon, though no formal announcement ending operations has occurred and Iran has downplayed scheduled diplomacy. With the ceasefire nearing expiration around April 22, traders monitor for a breakthrough on nuclear curbs, proxy forces, and Hormuz access that could prompt resolution, against risks of escalation from stalled negotiations or Iranian retaliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,899,101
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 10:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump anuncia o fim das operações militares contra o Irã por ...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de junho" at 82%, followed by "31 de maio" at 72%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump anuncia o fim das operações militares contra o Irã por ...?" has generated $26.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump anuncia o fim das operações militares contra o Irã por ...?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Trump anuncia o fim das operações militares contra o Irã por ...?" is "30 de junho" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de maio" at 72%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Trump anuncia o fim das operações militares contra o Irã por ...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.