**Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and JNIM alliance have applied sustained pressure on Gao through the April 2026 offensive and July follow-on attacks, securing parts of the surrounding Gao region, ambushing Malian-Russia Africa Corps convoys, and downing aircraft near the city.** However, Malian forces retained the airport and key positions, with government counteroperations—including precision strikes and relief columns—preventing full urban capture amid divided control reported in some accounts. Ongoing IEDs, ambushes, and September clashes have inflicted heavy casualties on both sides, yet the junta has reinforced northern theaters and maintained operational capacity in Gao itself. With roughly three months remaining until December 31 and no decisive breakthrough evident in recent reporting, traders assign an 83.5% probability that rebels will not achieve complete control of the city by year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOs rebeldes capturarão Gao até 31 de dezembro?
Os rebeldes capturarão Gao até 31 de dezembro?
Sim
17% chance
$13,016 Vol.
$13,016 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
17% chance
$13,016 Vol.
$13,016 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and JNIM alliance have applied sustained pressure on Gao through the April 2026 offensive and July follow-on attacks, securing parts of the surrounding Gao region, ambushing Malian-Russia Africa Corps convoys, and downing aircraft near the city.** However, Malian forces retained the airport and key positions, with government counteroperations—including precision strikes and relief columns—preventing full urban capture amid divided control reported in some accounts. Ongoing IEDs, ambushes, and September clashes have inflicted heavy casualties on both sides, yet the junta has reinforced northern theaters and maintained operational capacity in Gao itself. With roughly three months remaining until December 31 and no decisive breakthrough evident in recent reporting, traders assign an 83.5% probability that rebels will not achieve complete control of the city by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$13,016Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and JNIM alliance have applied sustained pressure on Gao through the April 2026 offensive and July follow-on attacks, securing parts of the surrounding Gao region, ambushing Malian-Russia Africa Corps convoys, and downing aircraft near the city.** However, Malian forces retained the airport and key positions, with government counteroperations—including precision strikes and relief columns—preventing full urban capture amid divided control reported in some accounts. Ongoing IEDs, ambushes, and September clashes have inflicted heavy casualties on both sides, yet the junta has reinforced northern theaters and maintained operational capacity in Gao itself. With roughly three months remaining until December 31 and no decisive breakthrough evident in recent reporting, traders assign an 83.5% probability that rebels will not achieve complete control of the city by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Volume
$13,016Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and JNIM alliance have applied sustained pressure on Gao through the April 2026 offensive and July follow-on attacks, securing parts of the surrounding Gao region, ambushing Malian-Russia Africa Corps convoys, and downing aircraft near the city.** However, Malian forces retained the airport and key positions, with government counteroperations—including precision strikes and relief columns—preventing full urban capture amid divided control reported in some accounts. Ongoing IEDs, ambushes, and September clashes have inflicted heavy casualties on both sides, yet the junta has reinforced northern theaters and maintained operational capacity in Gao itself. With roughly three months remaining until December 31 and no decisive breakthrough evident in recent reporting, traders assign an 83.5% probability that rebels will not achieve complete control of the city by year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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