Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove's decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing with roughly 54 percent of the vote, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California's 37th congressional district. The seat's partisan voting index, ranging from D+33 to D+50, reflects its urban Los Angeles base and consistent Democratic registration advantage, creating structural barriers for Republican challengers such as Baltazar Fedalizo. Historical results, including the incumbent's prior 78 percent general-election share, further anchor the 95.5 percent implied probability. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major late-cycle event within the November 3 general-election window, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe Democratic districts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-37 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-37 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
96%
Республиканская партия
6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$1,881 Объем
96%
Республиканская партия
$312 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove's decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing with roughly 54 percent of the vote, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California's 37th congressional district. The seat's partisan voting index, ranging from D+33 to D+50, reflects its urban Los Angeles base and consistent Democratic registration advantage, creating structural barriers for Republican challengers such as Baltazar Fedalizo. Historical results, including the incumbent's prior 78 percent general-election share, further anchor the 95.5 percent implied probability. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major late-cycle event within the November 3 general-election window, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe Democratic districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$2,192Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove's decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing with roughly 54 percent of the vote, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California's 37th congressional district. The seat's partisan voting index, ranging from D+33 to D+50, reflects its urban Los Angeles base and consistent Democratic registration advantage, creating structural barriers for Republican challengers such as Baltazar Fedalizo. Historical results, including the incumbent's prior 78 percent general-election share, further anchor the 95.5 percent implied probability. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major late-cycle event within the November 3 general-election window, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe Democratic districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$2,192Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove's decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing with roughly 54 percent of the vote, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California's 37th congressional district. The seat's partisan voting index, ranging from D+33 to D+50, reflects its urban Los Angeles base and consistent Democratic registration advantage, creating structural barriers for Republican challengers such as Baltazar Fedalizo. Historical results, including the incumbent's prior 78 percent general-election share, further anchor the 95.5 percent implied probability. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major late-cycle event within the November 3 general-election window, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe Democratic districts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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