Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment near 4.1–4.2%) and solid economic growth, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings. The July decision passed on a divided 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike, leaving market-implied odds for the September 15–16 meeting finely balanced between further patience and tightening. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Pause–Pause–Pause at 64%, reflecting expectations that incoming July and August CPI prints and supply-chain developments will not yet compel action, though any hotter-than-expected inflation data could quickly elevate hike probabilities embedded in the 35.5% “Other” outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 64%
Other 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.0%
$695,138 Объем
$695,138 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
64%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
36%
Pause–Pause–Pause 64%
Other 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.0%
$695,138 Объем
$695,138 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$279,113 Объем
64%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,079 Объем
1%
Other
$298,069 Объем
36%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment near 4.1–4.2%) and solid economic growth, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings. The July decision passed on a divided 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike, leaving market-implied odds for the September 15–16 meeting finely balanced between further patience and tightening. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Pause–Pause–Pause at 64%, reflecting expectations that incoming July and August CPI prints and supply-chain developments will not yet compel action, though any hotter-than-expected inflation data could quickly elevate hike probabilities embedded in the 35.5% “Other” outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Объем
$695,138Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment near 4.1–4.2%) and solid economic growth, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings. The July decision passed on a divided 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike, leaving market-implied odds for the September 15–16 meeting finely balanced between further patience and tightening. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Pause–Pause–Pause at 64%, reflecting expectations that incoming July and August CPI prints and supply-chain developments will not yet compel action, though any hotter-than-expected inflation data could quickly elevate hike probabilities embedded in the 35.5% “Other” outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$695,138Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment near 4.1–4.2%) and solid economic growth, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings. The July decision passed on a divided 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike, leaving market-implied odds for the September 15–16 meeting finely balanced between further patience and tightening. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Pause–Pause–Pause at 64%, reflecting expectations that incoming July and August CPI prints and supply-chain developments will not yet compel action, though any hotter-than-expected inflation data could quickly elevate hike probabilities embedded in the 35.5% “Other” outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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