Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Ankara's continental spring weather, with closely matched implied probabilities—21°C or higher at 25.5% and 11°C or below at 24.5%—driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 16-18°C but with wide spreads. Recent model runs, including those implying 17°C maxima under broken clouds per extended outlooks, follow a spring heatwave alert across Turkey that elevated warm-outcome bets, countered by risks of northerly cold air advection maintaining cool probabilities. Historical April averages near 17°C underscore variability from jet stream shifts; watch daily Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 12z model cycles for catalysts ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Анкаре 7 апреля?
Самая высокая температура в Анкаре 7 апреля?
15°C 25%
16°C 20%
18°C 18%
17°C 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 апр. 2026 г.
11°C или ниже
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
15%
14°C
16%
15°C
25%
16°C
20%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
14%
20°C
10%
21°C или выше
14%
15°C 25%
16°C 20%
18°C 18%
17°C 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 апр. 2026 г.
11°C или ниже
$130 Объем
1%
12°C
$0 Объем
3%
13°C
$0 Объем
15%
14°C
$0 Объем
16%
15°C
$0 Объем
25%
16°C
$0 Объем
20%
17°C
$0 Объем
18%
18°C
$0 Объем
18%
19°C
$0 Объем
14%
20°C
$0 Объем
10%
21°C или выше
$0 Объем
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Ankara's continental spring weather, with closely matched implied probabilities—21°C or higher at 25.5% and 11°C or below at 24.5%—driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 16-18°C but with wide spreads. Recent model runs, including those implying 17°C maxima under broken clouds per extended outlooks, follow a spring heatwave alert across Turkey that elevated warm-outcome bets, countered by risks of northerly cold air advection maintaining cool probabilities. Historical April averages near 17°C underscore variability from jet stream shifts; watch daily Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 12z model cycles for catalysts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Объем
$130Дата окончания
7 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Ankara's continental spring weather, with closely matched implied probabilities—21°C or higher at 25.5% and 11°C or below at 24.5%—driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 16-18°C but with wide spreads. Recent model runs, including those implying 17°C maxima under broken clouds per extended outlooks, follow a spring heatwave alert across Turkey that elevated warm-outcome bets, countered by risks of northerly cold air advection maintaining cool probabilities. Historical April averages near 17°C underscore variability from jet stream shifts; watch daily Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 12z model cycles for catalysts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$130Дата окончания
7 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Ankara's continental spring weather, with closely matched implied probabilities—21°C or higher at 25.5% and 11°C or below at 24.5%—driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 16-18°C but with wide spreads. Recent model runs, including those implying 17°C maxima under broken clouds per extended outlooks, follow a spring heatwave alert across Turkey that elevated warm-outcome bets, countered by risks of northerly cold air advection maintaining cool probabilities. Historical April averages near 17°C underscore variability from jet stream shifts; watch daily Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 12z model cycles for catalysts ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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