Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on April 7, with implied probabilities evenly split across outcomes from 15°C or below to 25°C or higher due to diverging GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs projecting daytime highs between 16–24°C. This fragmentation stems from a recent sharp temperature drop forecasted by Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) following warm early Semana Santa conditions (maxima near 27°C on April 3), potentially tied to a passing cold front and variable northerly-to-southerly wind shifts influencing cloud cover and solar heating. Historical April 7 averages hover around 22°C in the humid subtropical climate, but current atmospheric patterns introduce bimodal risks—persistent warmth if high pressure dominates or cooling below 18°C with frontal reinforcement. Watch SMN's daily extended forecasts and model updates for resolution clarity by April 5.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 7?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 7?
15°C or below 26%
19°C 26%
23°C 14%
24°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 апр. 2026 г.
15°C or below
26%
16°C
8%
17°C
8%
18°C
8%
19°C
26%
20°C
10%
21°C
11%
22°C
10%
23°C
14%
24°C
12%
25°C or higher
12%
15°C or below 26%
19°C 26%
23°C 14%
24°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 апр. 2026 г.
15°C or below
$0 Объем
26%
16°C
$0 Объем
8%
17°C
$0 Объем
8%
18°C
$0 Объем
8%
19°C
$0 Объем
26%
20°C
$0 Объем
10%
21°C
$0 Объем
11%
22°C
$0 Объем
10%
23°C
$0 Объем
14%
24°C
$0 Объем
12%
25°C or higher
$0 Объем
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on April 7, with implied probabilities evenly split across outcomes from 15°C or below to 25°C or higher due to diverging GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs projecting daytime highs between 16–24°C. This fragmentation stems from a recent sharp temperature drop forecasted by Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) following warm early Semana Santa conditions (maxima near 27°C on April 3), potentially tied to a passing cold front and variable northerly-to-southerly wind shifts influencing cloud cover and solar heating. Historical April 7 averages hover around 22°C in the humid subtropical climate, but current atmospheric patterns introduce bimodal risks—persistent warmth if high pressure dominates or cooling below 18°C with frontal reinforcement. Watch SMN's daily extended forecasts and model updates for resolution clarity by April 5.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
7 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on April 7, with implied probabilities evenly split across outcomes from 15°C or below to 25°C or higher due to diverging GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs projecting daytime highs between 16–24°C. This fragmentation stems from a recent sharp temperature drop forecasted by Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) following warm early Semana Santa conditions (maxima near 27°C on April 3), potentially tied to a passing cold front and variable northerly-to-southerly wind shifts influencing cloud cover and solar heating. Historical April 7 averages hover around 22°C in the humid subtropical climate, but current atmospheric patterns introduce bimodal risks—persistent warmth if high pressure dominates or cooling below 18°C with frontal reinforcement. Watch SMN's daily extended forecasts and model updates for resolution clarity by April 5.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
7 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on April 7, with implied probabilities evenly split across outcomes from 15°C or below to 25°C or higher due to diverging GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs projecting daytime highs between 16–24°C. This fragmentation stems from a recent sharp temperature drop forecasted by Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) following warm early Semana Santa conditions (maxima near 27°C on April 3), potentially tied to a passing cold front and variable northerly-to-southerly wind shifts influencing cloud cover and solar heating. Historical April 7 averages hover around 22°C in the humid subtropical climate, but current atmospheric patterns introduce bimodal risks—persistent warmth if high pressure dominates or cooling below 18°C with frontal reinforcement. Watch SMN's daily extended forecasts and model updates for resolution clarity by April 5.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы