Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for a 21°C high in Shanghai on April 4, reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures of 21-22°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 10-12 mph. Yesterday's observed high of 23°C at official stations like Xujiahui dropped slightly today amid weak frontal passage, but subsidence from a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge sustains above-climatological warmth—early April averages 18°C influenced by urban heat island effects boosting urban readings 1-2°C. Low precipitation odds (under 10%) minimize cooling risks; watch CMA's evening update for final 00Z runs, as cloud evolution could nudge the diurnal maximum ±1°C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
21°C 42%
22°C 29%
20°C 12%
23°C 9%
$65,246 Объем
$65,246 Объем
4 апр. 2026 г.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
12%
21°C
42%
22°C
29%
23°C
9%
24°C or higher
6%
21°C 42%
22°C 29%
20°C 12%
23°C 9%
$65,246 Объем
$65,246 Объем
4 апр. 2026 г.
14°C or below
$10,155 Объем
<1%
15°C
$8,986 Объем
<1%
16°C
$9,315 Объем
<1%
17°C
$5,086 Объем
1%
18°C
$4,787 Объем
1%
19°C
$4,965 Объем
5%
20°C
$3,733 Объем
12%
21°C
$4,465 Объем
42%
22°C
$5,145 Объем
29%
23°C
$3,885 Объем
9%
24°C or higher
$5,281 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for a 21°C high in Shanghai on April 4, reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures of 21-22°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 10-12 mph. Yesterday's observed high of 23°C at official stations like Xujiahui dropped slightly today amid weak frontal passage, but subsidence from a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge sustains above-climatological warmth—early April averages 18°C influenced by urban heat island effects boosting urban readings 1-2°C. Low precipitation odds (under 10%) minimize cooling risks; watch CMA's evening update for final 00Z runs, as cloud evolution could nudge the diurnal maximum ±1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Объем
$65,246Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for a 21°C high in Shanghai on April 4, reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures of 21-22°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 10-12 mph. Yesterday's observed high of 23°C at official stations like Xujiahui dropped slightly today amid weak frontal passage, but subsidence from a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge sustains above-climatological warmth—early April averages 18°C influenced by urban heat island effects boosting urban readings 1-2°C. Low precipitation odds (under 10%) minimize cooling risks; watch CMA's evening update for final 00Z runs, as cloud evolution could nudge the diurnal maximum ±1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$65,246Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for a 21°C high in Shanghai on April 4, reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures of 21-22°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 10-12 mph. Yesterday's observed high of 23°C at official stations like Xujiahui dropped slightly today amid weak frontal passage, but subsidence from a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge sustains above-climatological warmth—early April averages 18°C influenced by urban heat island effects boosting urban readings 1-2°C. Low precipitation odds (under 10%) minimize cooling risks; watch CMA's evening update for final 00Z runs, as cloud evolution could nudge the diurnal maximum ±1°C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы