Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing Beijing's April 12 high temperature clustered around 25–27°C (33.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% implied probabilities, respectively), driven by yesterday's April 10 observations nearing 25°C amid spring warming trends. Differentiating factors include variable boundary-layer mixing under southerly winds, urban heat island amplification in Beijing, and potential afternoon cloud cover suppressing peaks, as evidenced by slight model disagreements in recent 00Z and 12Z runs. AccuWeather aligns at 25°C (77°F), but historical April mid-month highs average 22–24°C, heightening sensitivity to clear-sky persistence. Final China Meteorological Administration advisories and hourly observations today will likely sharpen odds before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on April 12?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 12?
25°C 33%
26°C 26%
27°C 23%
24°C 12%
$17,338 Объем
$17,338 Объем
12 апр. 2026 г.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
12%
25°C
33%
26°C
26%
27°C
23%
28°C
7%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
25°C 33%
26°C 26%
27°C 23%
24°C 12%
$17,338 Объем
$17,338 Объем
12 апр. 2026 г.
21°C or below
$3,836 Объем
<1%
22°C
$2,534 Объем
1%
23°C
$1,574 Объем
3%
24°C
$1,286 Объем
12%
25°C
$1,029 Объем
33%
26°C
$983 Объем
26%
27°C
$1,057 Объем
23%
28°C
$1,772 Объем
7%
29°C
$1,302 Объем
2%
30°C
$657 Объем
1%
31°C or higher
$1,309 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing Beijing's April 12 high temperature clustered around 25–27°C (33.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% implied probabilities, respectively), driven by yesterday's April 10 observations nearing 25°C amid spring warming trends. Differentiating factors include variable boundary-layer mixing under southerly winds, urban heat island amplification in Beijing, and potential afternoon cloud cover suppressing peaks, as evidenced by slight model disagreements in recent 00Z and 12Z runs. AccuWeather aligns at 25°C (77°F), but historical April mid-month highs average 22–24°C, heightening sensitivity to clear-sky persistence. Final China Meteorological Administration advisories and hourly observations today will likely sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 8, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Объем
$17,338Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 12:18 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing Beijing's April 12 high temperature clustered around 25–27°C (33.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% implied probabilities, respectively), driven by yesterday's April 10 observations nearing 25°C amid spring warming trends. Differentiating factors include variable boundary-layer mixing under southerly winds, urban heat island amplification in Beijing, and potential afternoon cloud cover suppressing peaks, as evidenced by slight model disagreements in recent 00Z and 12Z runs. AccuWeather aligns at 25°C (77°F), but historical April mid-month highs average 22–24°C, heightening sensitivity to clear-sky persistence. Final China Meteorological Administration advisories and hourly observations today will likely sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$17,338Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 12:18 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing Beijing's April 12 high temperature clustered around 25–27°C (33.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% implied probabilities, respectively), driven by yesterday's April 10 observations nearing 25°C amid spring warming trends. Differentiating factors include variable boundary-layer mixing under southerly winds, urban heat island amplification in Beijing, and potential afternoon cloud cover suppressing peaks, as evidenced by slight model disagreements in recent 00Z and 12Z runs. AccuWeather aligns at 25°C (77°F), but historical April mid-month highs average 22–24°C, heightening sensitivity to clear-sky persistence. Final China Meteorological Administration advisories and hourly observations today will likely sharpen odds before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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