Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C at 99.7% implied probability, driven by official hourly observations from Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution source—peaking at 18°C midday amid persistent overcast skies, light drizzle, and easterly winds advecting cooler maritime air from the East China Sea. China Meteorological Administration data and ECMWF model runs confirm this cap, with cloud cover sharply reducing solar insolation and forecasts showing afternoon cooling to 14-16°C under incoming rain bands. Historical April norms hover around 18-19°C, but today's synoptic pattern mirrors cool-spring analogs. A realistic upset would require unexpected clearing for 30-60 minutes of direct sunlight, potentially nudging to 19°C before evening; final METAR reports through midnight will seal resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 11?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 11?
18°C 99.8%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$264,526 Объем
$264,526 Объем
11 апр. 2026 г.
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 99.8%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$264,526 Объем
$264,526 Объем
11 апр. 2026 г.
18°C
$54,251 Объем
100%
19°C
$23,203 Объем
<1%
20°C
$18,322 Объем
<1%
21°C
$19,927 Объем
<1%
22°C or higher
$30,665 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C at 99.7% implied probability, driven by official hourly observations from Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution source—peaking at 18°C midday amid persistent overcast skies, light drizzle, and easterly winds advecting cooler maritime air from the East China Sea. China Meteorological Administration data and ECMWF model runs confirm this cap, with cloud cover sharply reducing solar insolation and forecasts showing afternoon cooling to 14-16°C under incoming rain bands. Historical April norms hover around 18-19°C, but today's synoptic pattern mirrors cool-spring analogs. A realistic upset would require unexpected clearing for 30-60 minutes of direct sunlight, potentially nudging to 19°C before evening; final METAR reports through midnight will seal resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 7, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Объем
$264,526Дата окончания
11 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 12:10 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C at 99.7% implied probability, driven by official hourly observations from Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution source—peaking at 18°C midday amid persistent overcast skies, light drizzle, and easterly winds advecting cooler maritime air from the East China Sea. China Meteorological Administration data and ECMWF model runs confirm this cap, with cloud cover sharply reducing solar insolation and forecasts showing afternoon cooling to 14-16°C under incoming rain bands. Historical April norms hover around 18-19°C, but today's synoptic pattern mirrors cool-spring analogs. A realistic upset would require unexpected clearing for 30-60 minutes of direct sunlight, potentially nudging to 19°C before evening; final METAR reports through midnight will seal resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$264,526Дата окончания
11 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 12:10 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C at 99.7% implied probability, driven by official hourly observations from Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution source—peaking at 18°C midday amid persistent overcast skies, light drizzle, and easterly winds advecting cooler maritime air from the East China Sea. China Meteorological Administration data and ECMWF model runs confirm this cap, with cloud cover sharply reducing solar insolation and forecasts showing afternoon cooling to 14-16°C under incoming rain bands. Historical April norms hover around 18-19°C, but today's synoptic pattern mirrors cool-spring analogs. A realistic upset would require unexpected clearing for 30-60 minutes of direct sunlight, potentially nudging to 19°C before evening; final METAR reports through midnight will seal resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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