Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model ensembles, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated in the past 24 hours, indicate Chicago's high temperature on April 5 clustering around 50-53°F, aligning with trader consensus and the climatological normal of 54.8°F at O'Hare. A persistent cloudy pattern from early April's blustery, wet conditions—stemming from March's mild, active weather—caps warming potential via increased cloud cover and possible light precipitation, differentiating slightly cooler 48-49°F outcomes (18.5% implied probability) from marginally warmer 54-55°F (14.5%). Forecast spread of 5-10°F reflects uncertainty in weak frontal timing and upper-level steering; new 12z model guidance expected midday April 4 could sharpen resolution criteria before the daily maximum observation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
50-51°F 24%
52-53°F 22%
48-49°F 19%
54-55°F 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
19%
50-51°F
24%
52-53°F
22%
54-55°F
15%
56°F or higher
10%
50-51°F 24%
52-53°F 22%
48-49°F 19%
54-55°F 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
37°F or below
$724 Объем
<1%
38-39°F
$573 Объем
<1%
40-41°F
$718 Объем
<1%
42-43°F
$1,079 Объем
2%
44-45°F
$676 Объем
8%
46-47°F
$716 Объем
8%
48-49°F
$798 Объем
19%
50-51°F
$1,087 Объем
24%
52-53°F
$840 Объем
22%
54-55°F
$903 Объем
15%
56°F or higher
$1,441 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model ensembles, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated in the past 24 hours, indicate Chicago's high temperature on April 5 clustering around 50-53°F, aligning with trader consensus and the climatological normal of 54.8°F at O'Hare. A persistent cloudy pattern from early April's blustery, wet conditions—stemming from March's mild, active weather—caps warming potential via increased cloud cover and possible light precipitation, differentiating slightly cooler 48-49°F outcomes (18.5% implied probability) from marginally warmer 54-55°F (14.5%). Forecast spread of 5-10°F reflects uncertainty in weak frontal timing and upper-level steering; new 12z model guidance expected midday April 4 could sharpen resolution criteria before the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Объем
$9,547Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model ensembles, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated in the past 24 hours, indicate Chicago's high temperature on April 5 clustering around 50-53°F, aligning with trader consensus and the climatological normal of 54.8°F at O'Hare. A persistent cloudy pattern from early April's blustery, wet conditions—stemming from March's mild, active weather—caps warming potential via increased cloud cover and possible light precipitation, differentiating slightly cooler 48-49°F outcomes (18.5% implied probability) from marginally warmer 54-55°F (14.5%). Forecast spread of 5-10°F reflects uncertainty in weak frontal timing and upper-level steering; new 12z model guidance expected midday April 4 could sharpen resolution criteria before the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$9,547Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model ensembles, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated in the past 24 hours, indicate Chicago's high temperature on April 5 clustering around 50-53°F, aligning with trader consensus and the climatological normal of 54.8°F at O'Hare. A persistent cloudy pattern from early April's blustery, wet conditions—stemming from March's mild, active weather—caps warming potential via increased cloud cover and possible light precipitation, differentiating slightly cooler 48-49°F outcomes (18.5% implied probability) from marginally warmer 54-55°F (14.5%). Forecast spread of 5-10°F reflects uncertainty in weak frontal timing and upper-level steering; new 12z model guidance expected midday April 4 could sharpen resolution criteria before the daily maximum observation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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