Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching 14°C or higher on April 4, driven by Russia's Hydrometeorological Centre forecast of daytime highs at 16–18°C under a stable high-pressure system (744 mm Hg) fostering dry conditions and light winds. This aligns with Gismeteo projections of 15°C amid mainly cloudy skies and northerly breezes at 18–29 km/h, plus ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering 13–15°C amid warm air advection from recent abnormal warming across central Russia reported April 2–4. Early April climatological averages hover near 9–11°C, amplifying the positive anomaly, though light precipitation risks (0–0.9 mm) or cloud cover could suppress peaks toward 13°C (22% odds). Evening model runs and Vnukovo Airport observations (NOAA data) will refine trajectories before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on April 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 4?
14°C or higher 58%
13°C 22%
12°C 16%
11°C 5.8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 апр. 2026 г.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
4%
11°C
6%
12°C
16%
13°C
22%
14°C or higher
58%
14°C or higher 58%
13°C 22%
12°C 16%
11°C 5.8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 апр. 2026 г.
4°C or below
$927 Объем
<1%
5°C
$710 Объем
<1%
6°C
$578 Объем
<1%
7°C
$401 Объем
<1%
8°C
$928 Объем
<1%
9°C
$574 Объем
1%
10°C
$769 Объем
4%
11°C
$483 Объем
6%
12°C
$415 Объем
16%
13°C
$405 Объем
22%
14°C or higher
$592 Объем
58%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching 14°C or higher on April 4, driven by Russia's Hydrometeorological Centre forecast of daytime highs at 16–18°C under a stable high-pressure system (744 mm Hg) fostering dry conditions and light winds. This aligns with Gismeteo projections of 15°C amid mainly cloudy skies and northerly breezes at 18–29 km/h, plus ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering 13–15°C amid warm air advection from recent abnormal warming across central Russia reported April 2–4. Early April climatological averages hover near 9–11°C, amplifying the positive anomaly, though light precipitation risks (0–0.9 mm) or cloud cover could suppress peaks toward 13°C (22% odds). Evening model runs and Vnukovo Airport observations (NOAA data) will refine trajectories before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Объем
$6,781Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching 14°C or higher on April 4, driven by Russia's Hydrometeorological Centre forecast of daytime highs at 16–18°C under a stable high-pressure system (744 mm Hg) fostering dry conditions and light winds. This aligns with Gismeteo projections of 15°C amid mainly cloudy skies and northerly breezes at 18–29 km/h, plus ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering 13–15°C amid warm air advection from recent abnormal warming across central Russia reported April 2–4. Early April climatological averages hover near 9–11°C, amplifying the positive anomaly, though light precipitation risks (0–0.9 mm) or cloud cover could suppress peaks toward 13°C (22% odds). Evening model runs and Vnukovo Airport observations (NOAA data) will refine trajectories before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$6,781Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching 14°C or higher on April 4, driven by Russia's Hydrometeorological Centre forecast of daytime highs at 16–18°C under a stable high-pressure system (744 mm Hg) fostering dry conditions and light winds. This aligns with Gismeteo projections of 15°C amid mainly cloudy skies and northerly breezes at 18–29 km/h, plus ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering 13–15°C amid warm air advection from recent abnormal warming across central Russia reported April 2–4. Early April climatological averages hover near 9–11°C, amplifying the positive anomaly, though light precipitation risks (0–0.9 mm) or cloud cover could suppress peaks toward 13°C (22% odds). Evening model runs and Vnukovo Airport observations (NOAA data) will refine trajectories before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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