Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026, primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against two challengers, advancing to face Republican nominee Monique DeSpain in the November 3 general election. Oregon's 4th district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, delivering Hoyle a 51.7 percent victory in 2024 despite a competitive margin. No significant shifts in candidate positioning, polling, or external events have emerged since the primaries to alter the established partisan balance. Trader consensus therefore assigns the Democratic Party an overwhelming implied probability for retaining the seat, consistent with the district's voting patterns and the structural advantages of incumbency heading into the fall campaign.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
OR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$11,774 Объем
$11,774 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
88%
Республиканская партия
7%
$11,774 Объем
$11,774 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$9,149 Объем
88%
Республиканская партия
$2,626 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026, primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against two challengers, advancing to face Republican nominee Monique DeSpain in the November 3 general election. Oregon's 4th district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, delivering Hoyle a 51.7 percent victory in 2024 despite a competitive margin. No significant shifts in candidate positioning, polling, or external events have emerged since the primaries to alter the established partisan balance. Trader consensus therefore assigns the Democratic Party an overwhelming implied probability for retaining the seat, consistent with the district's voting patterns and the structural advantages of incumbency heading into the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$11,774Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026, primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against two challengers, advancing to face Republican nominee Monique DeSpain in the November 3 general election. Oregon's 4th district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, delivering Hoyle a 51.7 percent victory in 2024 despite a competitive margin. No significant shifts in candidate positioning, polling, or external events have emerged since the primaries to alter the established partisan balance. Trader consensus therefore assigns the Democratic Party an overwhelming implied probability for retaining the seat, consistent with the district's voting patterns and the structural advantages of incumbency heading into the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$11,774Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026, primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against two challengers, advancing to face Republican nominee Monique DeSpain in the November 3 general election. Oregon's 4th district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, delivering Hoyle a 51.7 percent victory in 2024 despite a competitive margin. No significant shifts in candidate positioning, polling, or external events have emerged since the primaries to alter the established partisan balance. Trader consensus therefore assigns the Democratic Party an overwhelming implied probability for retaining the seat, consistent with the district's voting patterns and the structural advantages of incumbency heading into the fall campaign.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы