**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s June 19 maximum temperature centers on 30–31 °C because official short-term guidance and model consensus place the daily high in that narrow band under a moist southerly airstream.** Recent Hong Kong Observatory outlooks and multi-model runs indicate mainly cloudy skies with moderate rain or showers, which limit insolation and keep surface heating in check while the seasonal signal of above-normal June temperatures provides a slight upward bias. Key differentiating factors include the timing and intensity of convective activity: heavier or more persistent rainfall can suppress the peak by 1–2 °C through evaporative cooling and reduced solar input, whereas breaks in cloud cover or localized urban heating in the Kowloon or Hong Kong Island districts could allow a brief push toward 31–32 °C. High humidity (typically 75–90 %) further modulates the energy balance by enhancing the greenhouse effect at night but capping daytime maxima. Historical June climatology shows typical highs near 30–31 °C under similar flow patterns, and the current 1–2 °C forecast spread explains why 30 °C and 31 °C together capture roughly two-thirds of market-implied probability while higher or lower outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated HKO briefings and the next model cycle will be the primary near-term drivers of any shifts in these odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 19?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 19?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$225,754 ปริมาณ
$225,754 ปริมาณ
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$225,754 ปริมาณ
$225,754 ปริมาณ
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s June 19 maximum temperature centers on 30–31 °C because official short-term guidance and model consensus place the daily high in that narrow band under a moist southerly airstream.** Recent Hong Kong Observatory outlooks and multi-model runs indicate mainly cloudy skies with moderate rain or showers, which limit insolation and keep surface heating in check while the seasonal signal of above-normal June temperatures provides a slight upward bias. Key differentiating factors include the timing and intensity of convective activity: heavier or more persistent rainfall can suppress the peak by 1–2 °C through evaporative cooling and reduced solar input, whereas breaks in cloud cover or localized urban heating in the Kowloon or Hong Kong Island districts could allow a brief push toward 31–32 °C. High humidity (typically 75–90 %) further modulates the energy balance by enhancing the greenhouse effect at night but capping daytime maxima. Historical June climatology shows typical highs near 30–31 °C under similar flow patterns, and the current 1–2 °C forecast spread explains why 30 °C and 31 °C together capture roughly two-thirds of market-implied probability while higher or lower outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated HKO briefings and the next model cycle will be the primary near-term drivers of any shifts in these odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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